MEGA(Make Europe Great Again)

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5%军费目标背后的冰冷事实:欧洲“国防支出潮”难当经济增长引擎
智通财经网· 2025-07-15 10:04
Group 1 - European leaders' commitment to significantly increase military spending is not primarily driven by economic growth motives, but it is expected to support the European economy from 2025 onwards, preventing a deep economic recession [1] - The MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) initiative has gained traction among investors, with European stock markets outperforming U.S. markets, driven by military investment and a favorable valuation setup compared to high U.S. stock valuations [1][2] - Military and defense stocks have seen substantial inflows, with military spending being a key driver for the European stock market's performance relative to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - NATO's military spending in Europe is projected to rise from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, but historical data suggests that defense spending does not significantly boost economic output [3][4] - The fiscal multiplier for military spending in Europe is estimated to be low, with a potential increase of only 0.5% in GDP for every 100 euros spent on defense [3][4] - The actual increase in military spending may not lead to a robust economic recovery, especially for countries with stagnant economies [4] Group 3 - The effectiveness of military spending depends on financing methods; borrowing for military expenses may yield better economic growth than tax increases [6] - Investment in research and development is crucial, as the EU currently allocates only 4.5% of its military budget to R&D, compared to 16% in the U.S. [6] - European countries need to focus on domestic production of military equipment, as over 80% of current procurement relies on imports, primarily from the U.S. [6][7] Group 4 - The disparity in economic benefits from military spending among European countries is evident, with Germany poised to benefit more due to its early commitment to increase defense spending [7] - France and the UK face fiscal constraints that may limit their ability to achieve significant economic growth from military expansion [7] - The focus on GDP targets may lead to misguided defense policies, emphasizing spending without addressing actual equipment needs and costs [7][8]