来源：Wind 从个股情况来看，上周融资客对104只股票加仓金额超1亿元，加仓居前的10只股票分别为紫金矿业、中金黄金、北京 君正、兴业银锡、京东方A、山东黄金、安泰科技、广发证券、海康威视、光启技术，分别净买入15.77亿元、7.83亿 元、7.49亿元、6.76亿元、6.56亿元、5.97亿元、5.89亿元、5.30亿元、5.13亿元、4.88亿元。从市场表现上看，上周融 资客加仓居前十的股票跌多涨少，涨幅最大的安泰科技涨逾19%。 上周融资净买入金额前十股 具体来看，上周的5个交易日中，10月13日A股融资余额增加22.40亿元，14日增加23.35亿元，15日增加23.14亿元，16 日增加75.91亿元，17日减少273.03亿元。 从行业情况来看，上周申万一级31个行业中有13个行业融资余额增加，有色金属、基础化工、国防军工行业融资净买 入金额居前，分别为61.47亿元、12.85亿元、8.53亿元。在融资余额减少的18个行业中，电子、通信、电力设备行业融 资净卖出金额居前，分别为70.49亿元、50.27亿元、28.73亿元。 上周行业融资余额变动情况 | 行业 | 两融余额(万元) | 融资余 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 风险资产博弈与波动显著提升 股票市场概览 本周 A 股下跌，港股下跌，美股上涨，其他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长及红利风格超额净值处于历史低位；风格拥挤度 近期上升至历史均衡位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格拥挤度近期上升至历史均衡位置，大盘风格 拥挤度近期上升至历史高位。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度下降至历史低位；基金重仓超额 累计净值持续处于历史低位，拥挤度近期上行至历史高位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为银行、煤炭、食品饮料；领跌的行业为电子、传媒、 国防军工。本周成交热度最高的行业为国防军工、机械、钢铁；成交热 度最低的行业为食品饮料、农林牧渔、综合金融。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为有色金属、钢铁、石油石 化，居后的行业为医药、银行、机械。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元贬值，离岸人民币较美元升值。 商品市场 本周中 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 10 月 20 日 重要推荐 【浙商大消费中观策略 杜宛泽/陈钊】十月稻田（09676）公司深度：健康饮食东风已起，新消费品牌持续进击— —20251016 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/徐紫薇】互联网电商 行业深度：生成式推荐：AI 时代互联网技术皇冠上的明珠—— 20251017 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/王家艺/张菁/李思扬/王一帆/周向昉/陈红/张筱晗】机械设备 季度行业策略报告：周期 反转、成长崛起、自主可控——20251016 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/赵闻恺】A 股策略周报："内外两因"触发调整，再平衡、控弹性——20251018 【浙商电新 邱世梁/王华君/孙旭鹏/陈晨】国防军工 季度行业策略报告：内需军贸，有望共振——20251019 【浙商通信 ...

摘要 十五规划预计将设定明确的经济增长目标，可能在 4.6%至 4.8%之间， 以应对内外部不确定性，并遵循二十大报告和三中全会确定的政策方向。 扩大内需是十五规划主线，通过提高居民可支配收入和创造消费场景增 强消费能力和意愿，并加大对服务消费的支持力度，减少消费限制，推 动财政补贴和制度优化。 投资方面，十五规划强调结合投资于物与投资于人，加大基础设施建设 和民生投资力度，挖掘高效益项目以解决边际收益率下滑问题。 产业发展将因地制宜发展新质生产力，包括传统、新兴和未来产业，提 高全要素生产率，引导优质要素向新质生产力倾斜。 高水平安全将在金融、产业链供应链、粮食能源及军事安全四个领域发 力，通过高效能治理促进高质量发展与高水平安全良性互动。 经济结构预计将由制造业向服务业倾斜，A 股市场服务业企业占比上升 将导致整体市场估值中枢上升，同时推动服务业数字化转型。 碳排放双控政策将从能耗双控转向以强度控制为主、总量控制为辅，推 动完善全国碳排放权交易市场，并加快建立产品碳足迹管理制度。 Q&A 十五规划的总体基调和与二十大报告、二十届三中全会的关系是什么？ 十五规划作为党中央的重要文件，与党的二十大报告和党的二 ...

两大商业卫星星座密集发射，关注二十届四中全会召开 军工行业周复盘&前瞻 20251017 中游制造/军工 ❑建议关注方向及标的： 北方导航、国博电子、航天电器、国科军工、佳力奇等。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 118 | 2.3 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2048.9 | 2.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 1695.9 | 1.8 | | 元） | | | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.9 20.7 32.7 相对表现 -1.1 1.0 13.5 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 (%) 军工 沪深300 相关报告 1 、 《 军 工 行 业 周 复 盘 & 前 瞻 20251010—特朗普对华加征 100% 关税，军工具备强板块弹性》2025- 10-13 1）航空主线：军工投资的中流砥柱。 2、《军工行业事件点评—三型舰载 机于福建舰完成 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, particularly focusing on quantitative screening of four types of patterns and trading heat indicators [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 13 thematic indices showing a bottoming pattern, primarily in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, while 17 indices have broken out, mainly in non-bank financials, utilities, food and beverage, and defense industries [12][9]. - The report highlights a decline in trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes, with humanoid robots' trading heat dropping to 61% and Deepseek's to 42%, indicating a potential cooling in market interest [3][16]. Group 2 - The report outlines the monitoring of leading stocks corresponding to popular themes, noting that the closing price of Changsheng Bearing is 12.8% below its 60-day moving average, while Daily Interaction is 10.8% below its 60-day moving average [16][20]. - The report indicates that there are currently no thematic indices in an accelerated upward trend, with only three indices showing a main rising pattern, primarily in coal and textile sectors [12][9]. - The report suggests that the thematic investment data system will be updated regularly to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing continuous improvement, with a focus on military trade and robotics. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant turning point for military investment, driven by a combination of economic recovery, value reassessment, and event catalysts [5][48] - The military trade market is expected to see substantial growth, particularly with Indonesia's potential procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets, which could serve as a breakthrough for domestic military trade [5][25] - The robotics sector is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements in both consumer and business applications, including the launch of the ZhiYuan G2 robot and the Figure 03 humanoid robot [4][11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Robotics Industry Tracking - The ZhiYuan G2 robot has received over 100 million yuan in orders and is now in commercial delivery, showcasing its capabilities in various industrial applications [11] - The Figure 03 humanoid robot has made significant advancements, enabling it to perform household tasks and serve in hospitality roles [12][15] - Police robots have been officially deployed in Zhejiang for patrol duties, indicating a new application area for robotic technology [17][20] 2. Military Trade Prospects - Indonesia is expected to procure Chinese J-10 fighter jets, marking a significant milestone in China's military trade exports [5][23] - The domestic military trade market has substantial growth potential, with China ranking sixth globally in military exports, accounting for only 3.9% of the market [25] 3. Market Performance Review - The defense and military index underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 5.12% during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [3][26] - Year-to-date, the defense and military index has increased by 15.0%, slightly outperforming the broader market [29][30] 4. Investment Focus and Beneficiary Stocks - Key investment themes include "new quality combat capabilities" and "value reassessment in a recovering market," with recommended stocks in various segments such as next-generation combat systems, unmanned equipment, and satellite internet [6][48] - Specific beneficiary stocks include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Huayin Technology, and various companies involved in unmanned systems and missile production [6][48]

Group 1 - The "high-cut low" style switch is currently unfolding, but there are differences in offense and defense. The market has shown that cyclical and value trends cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market continues its adjustment phase since early September. The key catalyst for cyclical trends has not yet arrived, and the trend of technology growth industries remains concentrated. A-shares will ultimately need to wait for technology to lead for effective breakthroughs [1][3][4] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased significantly. The current "high-cut low" market is defensive in nature, with intensified competition among offensive assets (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) within cyclical and value sectors, while defensive assets show absolute returns. The overall profit effect is declining, and technology rebounds show better profit effects [4][5][11] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable. Recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks have created short-term disturbances in risk appetite. However, these risks are still considered isolated events, and the VIX index has peaked and started to decline. A potential turning point in overseas pressures may have passed [8] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged: before spring 2026, the catalytic effect of technology industries will significantly exceed that of cyclical industries. Although the long-term cost-effectiveness of technology is currently low, short-term cost-effectiveness issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for the emergence of a new round of technology trends [8][9] Group 3 - Spring 2026 may represent a structural high point for the A-share market, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market. The conditions for a comprehensive bull market will become increasingly sufficient over time [11] - In the short term, cyclical products (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are not performing well, with a preference for defensive and hedging assets (such as banks and food and beverage). The outlook for 2026 is better than for 2025, with opportunities still available in Q4 2025, particularly in areas like overseas computing power, advanced manufacturing represented by new energy, and national defense and military industries [11][12]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved high-quality completion of most policy goals, including economic growth, labor productivity, and R&D investment, with significant progress in urbanization and life expectancy indicators [9][10][11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving Chinese-style modernization, focusing on solidifying the foundation for modernization and comprehensive development [7][8] Group 2 - Four industrial clues are identified for the "15th Five-Year Plan": fostering new productive forces, expanding domestic demand, advancing the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing resource utilization and protection [4][12][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows new momentum in domestic growth, with a need to address insufficient effective demand, emphasizing the importance of technology innovation and expanding domestic consumption [13][14] Group 3 - The focus on new productive forces includes the development of emerging industries, traditional industry upgrades, and the stimulation of digital economy innovation [4][12][18] - Expanding domestic demand involves promoting consumption through initiatives like "old-for-new" exchanges and investing in human capital, alongside infrastructure investment to support urban renewal [4][12][16] Group 4 - The construction of a unified national market aims to reduce internal competition and enhance efficiency in sectors like new energy, traditional cycles, and consumer goods [4][12][16] - Resource utilization and protection strategies emphasize the development of the marine economy and the safeguarding of strategic mineral resources [4][12][16] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that technology innovation sectors such as TMT, new energy, and biomedicine will continue to be key investment themes, supported by policy and industry growth [4][12][16] - Historical analysis indicates that A-share market trends around the announcements of previous five-year plans show a pattern of initial growth followed by sector rotation and differentiation [4][12][16]