日本市场恐慌 事实上，日本政府正陷入两难抉择。一方面，日本三季度经济出现萎缩，日本政府冒着债务负担加重的 压力推出庞大的经济刺激计划；另一方面，财政扩张叠加市场对日本央行推迟加息的预期，会进一步削 弱日元，而日元贬值又会反过来推高进口商品成本，与日本政府通过补贴来缓解通胀痛苦的做法背道而 驰。 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 受日本政府力推积极的财政政策、主张保持宽松货币政策等因素 的影响，日本连日遭受股债汇"三杀"。 11月21日，据环球时报报道，日本政府正在制定一项规模超过20万亿日元的经济刺激方案。经济刺激计 划震动市场，日本国债收益率已持续多日大幅走高，与其反向变动的债券价格正不断走低，日本国债被 市场抛售。与此同时，日本汇市和股市也同步承压。其中，日元兑美元持续跌破157区间，日经225指数 也跌穿49000点。 出于对日本政府即将推出经济刺激计划的担忧，前一段时间日股的繁荣行情戛然而止，市场转头呈现出 股债汇三重下跌的行情，凸显"高市交易"的脆弱性。 "当前中日经贸的不确定性增强，叠加日本经济在美国关税政策下承压，市场风险情绪上涨。"复旦发展 研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚对21世纪经济报道记者 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Shenzhen International Financial Conference highlighted the gradual recovery of China's financial situation, as indicated by the China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) [1][2] - The CAFI, developed over six years, effectively reflects financial cycles and has predictive capabilities for key macroeconomic indicators like GDP and CPI [1][3][6] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: monetary, credit, stock, bond, exchange rate, and real estate [3][4] - The index uses a standardized scoring system ranging from -100 to +100, with specific ranges indicating varying states of financial health [4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the overall financial situation in China is showing signs of initial recovery, with the CAFI index at 3.88 (equal weight) and 3.34 (volatility inverse weight), both indicating a "mildly positive" state [10] - The monetary market index and credit situation index are both in a "mildly positive" state, while the bond market index is showing signs of being "slightly cold" [7][10] - The exchange rate pressure index is the lowest among the sub-indices, reflecting ongoing pressures from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, although recent rate cuts may alleviate some of this pressure [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The financial situation is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a likely sustained accommodative monetary policy to combat deflationary pressures [10][11] - Policies will focus on guiding incremental capital into financial markets, breaking the current standoff between stock and bond markets, and enhancing investor protection [11] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts present an opportunity for China to attract international capital, which could bolster the financial situation and support economic recovery [11]

| 序号 | 区域性股权市场 | | --- | --- | | 1 | 黑龙江股权交易中心 | | 2 | 吉林股权交易所 | | 3 | 天府（四川）联合股权交易中心 | | 4 | 海南股权交易中心 | 人民财讯11月21日电，中国证监会公示区域性股权市场"专精特新"专板建设方案备案名单(第四批)。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月21日｜美联储理事丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook)周四表示，多个市场资产估值相较历史基准已处于 高位，包括股市、公司债券、杠杆贷款市场及房地产市场。她认为资产价格大跌可能性已经上升，但金 融体系整体韧性较强，并未发现类似大萧条期间的脆弱性，潜在的资产价格下跌并不会对金融体系构成 风险。她还称，对冲基金持有美债比例已从2021年第一季约4.6%，升至今年第一季10.3%，高于新冠疫 情前高位的9.4%。意味着若对冲基金因市场环境变化而大幅减持国债，可能引发的清算规模将显著扩 大。她还表示，私人信贷市场复杂性增加，以及与高杠杆金融机构相互连结加深，使私人信贷意外损失 可能传染至更广泛的金融体系。目前不认为私人信贷会像2008年资产担保商业票据市场般，引发意外的 信贷紧缩。 ...

打开百度APP畅享高清图片 ▲日本内阁府公布三季度GDP，按年率计算下降1.8%。图/IC photo 近期高市早苗的一番闹剧式表演，让日本经济挂上了新一层寒霜。 据经济日报报道，11月17日，日本内阁府公布三季度GDP，按年率计算下降1.8%，为六个季度以来首 次萎缩。日本金融市场出现股债汇"三杀"，20年期国债收益率创1999年以来最高水平。 11月18日，日本金融市场再现股债汇"三杀"。日经225指数暴跌3.22%，日元对美元汇率当天一度下跌至 1美元兑换155.38日元，创今年1月以来最低水平。30年期国债收益率升至3.28%。 11月19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。 日本金融市场的震荡，是日本国内经济低迷，高市早苗财政刺激和货币宽松计划引发市场抛售美元，美 国金融市场抛售科技股、加密货币和黄金等多重因素叠加的结果。其中，高市早苗的妄语妄行毒化了中 日关系，也是新生的市场重大风险。 11月20日早盘，日本金融市场止跌反弹，但是这并不代表高市早苗给日本经济造成的风险溢出效应会逐 渐消失。 这场作空日元的盛宴已经开了十几年。即使今年1月24日，日本央行将基准利率从 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP for the third quarter has decreased by an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking the first contraction in six quarters [2] - The financial market in Japan has experienced significant turmoil, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 3.22% and the yen falling to its lowest level against the dollar since January [2][3] - The decline in the stock market has been compounded by a sell-off in bonds and currency, leading to the highest 20-year bond yield since 1999 [2] Government Policy Impact - Prime Minister Kishi's aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies have contributed to market sell-offs, particularly affecting the yen's value [2][4] - The current debt level in Japan is approximately 263% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies and potential increases in long-term interest rates [5] - The government's push for military expansion and fiscal stimulus is seen as providing new momentum for short-selling the yen [4] Trade Relations and Risks - Tensions with China, Japan's largest trading partner, have escalated due to provocative statements from Kishi, potentially leading to greater economic repercussions for Japan [3][6] - Japan's reliance on imports from China is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China, highlighting the vulnerability of Japan's economy to trade disruptions [6][7] - A reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36%, equating to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued economic decline in Japan for the fourth quarter due to existing structural issues and rising uncertainties [8] - There is a call for Kishi to retract controversial statements to mitigate risks to the economy, although it remains uncertain whether this will occur [8][9]

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，11月20日，上海黄金交易所发布关于继续做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知。通知称近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多，为防范市场波动可能 带来的风险，请各会员单位继续做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行，并及时采取相应风控措施，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投 资，切实保障投资者合法权益。 ...

来源：恒力期货 海南封关运作准备就绪 再有一个月，海南自贸港全岛将正式封关运作。11月18日，海南自贸港10个"二线口岸"同步展开合成演 练。"封关"到底怎么封？将对海南岛内外产生怎样的影响？封关倒计时30天，各项准备工作进展如何？ 首先，封关并非封岛。它是一项自由化便利化的政策制度，是要将海南岛全岛建成一个海关监管特殊区 域，基本特征是"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"。 （来源：恒力期货） 海关总署11月18日举行记者通报会，有关负责人介绍，目前，海南自由贸易港封关运作各项准备工作已 基本就绪。 从11月18日起，海南自贸港"二线口岸"启动了7x24小时热运行。 （来源：央视新闻） 市场信心不足 日本国债遭投资者抛售 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。 由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者 抛售，长期利率持续上升。 （来源：环球网） "一线"放开，就是将海南自贸港与我国关境外其他国家和地区之间作为"一线"，实施一系列自由便利进 出举措；"二线"管住，就是将海南自贸港与内地之间作为"二线"，针对"一 ...

日本政府计划推出大规模经济刺激方案 引发金融市场担忧 中新网11月19日电(记者 张乃月)据日本共同社19日报道，知情人士称，日本政府计划推出规模超20万亿 日元的经济刺激方案，以缓解该国生活成本上升的压力。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 日媒指出，截至2023年，日本的债务与国内生产总值之比已达240%。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 一直以来，日本首相高市早苗承诺，将通过积极的财政支出来支撑日本饱受通胀困扰的经济。然而，投 资者对其经济政策对日本财政健康的影响表示担忧，导致近期日元和政府债券遭到抛售。 ...

Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 and GC001 closed at 1.37 and 1.26 respectively, with changes of 5.30bp and 28.00bp compared to the previous value; DR007 and GC007 closed at 1.47 and 1.49 respectively, with changes of -1.09bp and 2.00bp [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.41, 1.58, 1.81 respectively, with changes of 0.00bp, 0.32bp, -0.16bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Thursday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Data - The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4628, 3038, 7235, and 7503 respectively, with changes of -1.57%, -1.15%, -1.63%, -1.16% compared to the previous day; the closing prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were 4614, 3034, 7208, and 7468 respectively, with changes of -1.7%, -1.3%, -1.7%, -1.3% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 4628.1, SSE 50 remained unchanged at 3038.4, CSI 500 fell 1.26% to 7235.5, and CSI 1000 fell 0.52% to 7502.8 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial and retail, pharmaceutical and biological, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, computer, machinery, and national defense and military industries led the losses [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1992.9 billion yuan, 1822 billion yuan, 1785 billion yuan, 1878.3 billion yuan, and 1796.5 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In October, economic data showed a weakening trend, with investment growth and real - estate prices accelerating their decline; from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with the growth rate falling 1.2 percentage points compared to September [7] - In terms of investment structure, real - estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points; infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.83 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.3 percentage points [7] - In October, CPI year - on - year growth turned positive to 0.2%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, driven by rising service prices, food prices, and gold prices [7] - The current macro - level is a mix of long and short factors. After the overall adjustment of the technology sector, the market lacks a core driving force. The market is divided on whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural market to a full - scale slow - bull market [7] - The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern of having a bottom support and facing upward pressure. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock - index's volatile adjustment, and new driving forces are awaited for the stock index to rise further [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount Data - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are presented in the table, with specific values such as 22.30%, 6.63%, 3.55%, 3.54% for IF [8]