Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 with a negative yearly return of 6%, marking the first time in a post-halving year that it ended in the red, deviating from historical trends [2][6] - The traditional "4-year cycle" associated with Bitcoin's halving events is being questioned, with some analysts suggesting it may be evolving due to market maturation rather than being entirely broken [4][6] Historical Performance - Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked in the year following the halving, with significant positive returns observed in previous cycles: - 2012-2013: +8,480% to +7,000% - 2016-2017: +285% to +1,300% - 2020-2021: +560% - 2024-2025: -6% to -7%, the weakest post-halving performance on record [3][4] Market Dynamics - The impact of Bitcoin's halving events appears to be diminishing in an increasingly institutionalized market, with the 2024 halving reducing issuance from 1.7% to 0.85% annually, as approximately 94% of Bitcoin is already mined [7] - Institutional dominance has increased, with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 leading to cumulative inflows of approximately $56–$87 billion, tying Bitcoin more closely to traditional risk assets [7] Correlation and Macro Factors - Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose significantly in 2025, indicating its behavior as a "macro asset" sensitive to interest rates, liquidity, and equity sentiment [7] - Macro headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and Fed policy tightening, contributed to Bitcoin's underperformance, with it lagging behind gold, which performed well as a traditional hedge [7] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The early bull run in 2024 was driven by ETF hype, peaking early in 2025 before a correction occurred, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [7] - Reduced retail speculation is evident, with lower volatility and perpetual futures basis rates reflecting a more mature trading environment dominated by institutional players, accounting for 60% or more of trading volume [7]

Market Performance - In October, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex increased by 4.90% and 4.95% respectively, indicating a strong market performance [1] - A total of 578 equity mutual funds were analyzed, with 568 funds providing positive returns and only 10 funds showing negative returns [1][12] Top Performing Funds - The top-performing fund, Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 FOF, achieved a return of 9.02% in October, followed by WOC Digital Bharat Fund and HDFC Technology Fund with returns of 7.58% and 7.05% respectively [1][19] - Other notable technology sector funds included Kotak Technology Fund, ICICI Pru Technology Fund, and Edelweiss Technology Fund, which delivered returns of 6.54%, 6.52%, and 6.42% respectively [5][19] Sector Analysis - The technology sector was a significant contributor to the positive performance of equity mutual funds, with multiple funds in this category ranking among the top performers [1][19] - Funds from Mirae Asset Mutual Fund, such as Mirae Asset Global Electric & Autonomous Vehicles Equity Passive FOF and Mirae Asset Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF FOF, also performed well with returns of 6.71% and 6.68% respectively [19] Negative Performers - The worst-performing fund was ICICI Pru Strategic Metal and Energy Equity FoF, which lost approximately 5.07% in October [10][19] - Other negative performers included PGIM India Global Select Real Estate Securities FoF with a loss of 1.73% and two funds from ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, which lost 0.53% and 0.34% respectively [10][19] Earnings Growth Expectations - For FY26, Nifty 50 is expected to post an earnings growth of 8%, with mid and small caps projected to grow by 16% and 10% respectively [16] - The ongoing earnings season indicates steady growth, with large-cap companies expected to achieve 6-7% earnings growth, while mid- and small-cap segments are projected to deliver 14-16% year-on-year earnings growth [15][16] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Experts recommend maintaining a diversified portfolio across various categories, including a market cap mix of 55:23:22 for large, mid, and small caps to ensure stability and liquidity [17] - The supportive macroeconomic factors, such as GDP growth of 7.8% in Q1 FY26 and revised inflation of 2.6% for FY26, are expected to enhance corporate profitability and market sentiment [16]

Core Thesis - Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) is viewed positively due to recent insider buying, macroeconomic factors, and potential for strategic acquisitions, indicating management's confidence in the company's prospects [2][3][5] Insider Activity - A notable cluster of insider buying has been observed, including CAD 250,000 from VP of Business Development Lara Conrad, suggesting strong management conviction in Vermilion's future [2] - Independent director Stephen Larke's CAD 200,000 purchase and CEO Dion Hatcher's CAD 16,000 buy further support the notion that management believes the stock is undervalued [3] Strategic Acquisitions - Lara Conrad's previous experience with a significant acquisition at ARC Resources indicates that Vermilion may be preparing for strategic acquisitions, enhancing its growth potential [3] Macro Factors - The current Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, which historically correlates with colder winters in Europe, potentially increasing heating demand by 20-50% and benefiting Vermilion's natural gas operations in Europe [4] - The accelerating data center buildout in Canada is expected to provide structural support to domestic natural gas prices, positioning Vermilion to benefit from price appreciation in both European (TTF) and Canadian (AECO) markets [5] Financial Position - Despite a 3.70% depreciation in stock value since the last bullish thesis coverage, the company's strategic direction remains intact, with ongoing share buybacks and undervalued assets presenting a compelling investment opportunity [6]

ETF Outflows - Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced daily outflows of $523 million [1] - Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $422 million [1] Market Factors - Macro factors prompted investor repositioning [1]