Core Viewpoint - Wall Street believes that recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, are unlikely to significantly impact the U.S. stock market unless oil prices rise dramatically [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Markets - Historical geopolitical shocks have not led to sustained volatility in U.S. stocks, according to Morgan Stanley [2]. - A significant increase in oil prices is necessary to alter the positive outlook for the stock market over the next six to twelve months [2]. - The reference point for oil prices is around $120 per barrel, which previously raised inflation concerns and led to increased equity volatility during the Russia-Ukraine War [4]. Group 2: Energy Prices and ETFs - Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have indicated that a severe energy supply disruption in the Middle East could push oil prices back to the $100 to $120 range, escalating geopolitical risks to macroeconomic risks [5]. - If crude prices remain high, energy ETFs may become a preferred hedge for investors [6]. - The current rally in energy prices raises questions about whether it is due to a structural supply shock or a temporary spike driven by headlines [6]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Defensive Strategies - The healthcare sector is emerging as a defensive play due to reasonable valuations, improving earnings trends, and easing policy headwinds [7]. - Despite underperforming compared to the AI-driven megatech sector, a sustained rise in oil prices could benefit the healthcare sector [8]. - Investors are cautioned against blindly following the "buy the dip" strategy, as historical patterns may not hold in the current geopolitical climate [8][9]. Group 4: Broader Market Influences - Markets are influenced by multiple factors beyond geopolitical issues, including oil prices, inflation, and earnings [10]. - For ETF investors, the focus should be on the stability of crude prices and their potential impact on market dynamics [10].

Group 1: Market Reactions to Political Developments - Investors withdrew nearly $1 billion from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Bitcoin and Ethereum, with $709 million coming from Bitcoin ETFs and $287 million from Ethereum ETFs, marking the largest single-day outflow since November 20 [1][5] - The market experienced a rebound following President Trump's comments regarding tariffs and negotiations over Greenland, which alleviated some geopolitical concerns that had contributed to the earlier selloff [2][5] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell, with Bitcoin down 7.5% over the past week and Ethereum down 12%, despite having reached their highest prices in over a month prior to the decline [6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - Bitcoin is currently behaving like a high-beta and risk-on asset, trading similarly to equities rather than acting as a store of value [7] - Despite the recent outflows, digital asset investment products in Europe generated $113 million in net inflows last week, indicating some resilience in investor sentiment [7] - Jasper De Maere from Wintermute noted that while Trump's pivot reduced immediate geopolitical risks, macroeconomic risks remain elevated [5]

All right, Tom. So, 2023 we turned in 24%. 2024 we turned in 23%.Pretty good this year, too. 17%. Next year, we fill in the blank with what sounds reasonable to you.>> Um, I think it's still possible to have a double digit year. There have been 12 times in the last 100 years where markets posted three years of 20% gains. This year hasn't finished yet.um globally half the time markets do even better in the following year. So I think next year is a year where the debate's going to be is the bull cycle over or ...