Core Message - The IMF World Bank annual meetings highlight that geopolitical and economic uncertainty, particularly due to trade tariffs, is impacting global growth [2][4]. Economic Outlook - The current effective tariff rate from the US is slightly under 20%, down from an earlier projection of around 25%, indicating some adaptation in the private sector [4][3]. - Growth projections for 2025 remain stable at 3.2%, with a slight expected slowdown to 3.1% next year, supported by strong tech investments and accommodating financial conditions [5]. Trade Relations - Ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and China, pose risks to the global economy, with potential declines in global output by 0.3% if tensions escalate [6][7]. - The need for clear and transparent trade agreements is emphasized to restore stability and allow businesses to plan effectively [7][11]. Regional Perspectives - Australia advocates for more trade rather than trade barriers, expressing concerns about the global economic impact of current trade tensions [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies is seen as detrimental to economic stability, with no clear winners in the ongoing trade disputes [15][16]. Data Interpretation Challenges - Current trade data is volatile, making it difficult to assess the full impact of trade conflicts, with some effects potentially delayed [17][19]. - The first quarter saw significant import frontloading in anticipation of tariffs, complicating the interpretation of trade figures [20][21].