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Kohl's 43% Stock Surge Obliterates Shorts: Can Margin Gains Defy Retail Gloom?
Benzinga· 2025-11-26 13:56
Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corp experienced a significant stock surge of over 42% following a surprise profit in the third quarter and an increase in full-year guidance, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and investor confidence [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin increase of more than 100% year over year, attributed to cost discipline, inventory efficiency, and a better merchandising mix, which was a key factor in the positive market reaction [3]. - Comparable sales declined nearly 2%, suggesting that revenue growth has not yet materialized despite the margin improvements [6]. Strategic Changes - New CEO Michael Bender outlined a multi-year productivity reset strategy aimed at enhancing category profitability, vendor negotiations, and optimizing store footprint, rather than merely increasing traffic [4]. - The raised outlook reflects internal confidence in the company's operational improvements, which contrasts with the market's previous focus on promotional strategies [5]. Market Dynamics - Approximately 37% of the float was shorted prior to the earnings report, leading to a short squeeze characterized by rapid and panic-driven buying [2]. - The stock is currently trading at about 0.8 times sales, which is lower than Macy's Inc, suggesting that Kohl's may still be undervalued if margin stability is achieved [7]. Future Outlook - The sustainability of the recent stock surge remains uncertain, with questions about whether margin expansion can continue into the holiday quarter without a decline in customer traffic [8]. - The company faces approximately $400 million in capital expenditure requirements to modernize its stores and logistics, adding to the challenges ahead [6].