Core Insights - The trucking, maritime, and intermodal markets are experiencing a complex landscape with weak truckload demand and ongoing market exits despite seasonal demand fading [1] - Intermodal demand remains strong, supported by service quality and cost advantages over truckload [2] - Global trade uncertainties and macroeconomic factors are contributing to volatility in container ship rates, despite ample capacity [3] Trucking Market - Truckload tightness is primarily supply-driven rather than demand-driven, with elevated spot rates and tender rejection rates despite lower tender volumes [4] - Post-holiday normalization is slower than usual, with rejection rates and spot rates only modestly easing from mid-January peaks [4] - The refrigerated markets have seen significant seasonal volatility, with reefer rejection rates nearing 20% around Christmas due to cold weather demands [4] Pricing Dynamics - Pricing is stable in dense classes (70–85), rising in higher classes above 125, and compressing in heavier lower classes, with LTL expected to lag behind truckload tightening [2] - Contract rates are under pressure to increase, but the timing of such increases remains uncertain [4] - The spot–contract rate spread has collapsed rapidly, with aggregated spot rates briefly exceeding contract rates around Christmas, indicating a quick shift in market conditions [4] Capacity and Service - Carrier exits are impacting service and pricing, with years of attrition and financial strain leading to tighter capacity and weaker compliance with route guides [4] - The LTL market remains uneven and selective, reflecting the broader challenges in the trucking industry [4]

Russia’s fuel oil exports to Asia are set for a third consecutive month of declines in January as the U.S. sanctions deter buyers and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure reduce shipments. So far this month, Russia has exported around 246,000 barrels per day (bpd) of fuel oil to Asia, according to vessel-tracking data by Kpler cited by Reuters. These lower Russian shipments, on track for a third straight month of declines, combine with reduced exports of fuel oil from Venezuela amid the U.S. ...