The February 2026 “State of the Industry Report” — presented in affiliation with Ryder — shares an in-depth overview across the trucking, maritime and intermodal markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. The data contained within the report provides breakdowns of capacity, volumes and rates. In this report, you will find: Truckload tightness is supply-driven, not demand-driven.Spot rates and tender rejection rates remain elevated despite tender volumes running well below year-ago levels, p ...

Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Non-GAAP Financial Data Disclosure This presentation, including documents incorporated herein by reference, will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and un ...

Group 1 - The January 2025 "State of the Industry Report" provides a comprehensive overview of the trucking, maritime, and intermodal markets, highlighting expected trends in the coming weeks [1] - The report includes detailed data on capacity, volumes, and rates, which are essential for understanding market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The truckload market has tightened significantly post-Thanksgiving, with spot rates and tender rejections increasing rapidly [2] - Reefer and dry van segments have tightened more than the previous year, while flatbed remains relatively stable with minimal volatility [2] - Rejection rates are 2-3 percentage points higher year-over-year, and spot rates have increased by nearly 9% year-over-year in aggregate [2] - Intermodal volume has seen a slight year-over-year increase in Q4, driven by strong service and favorable rate spreads compared to truckload [2] - Manufacturing is currently in contraction, as indicated by an ISM PMI of 48.2 in November, attributed to uncertainty and commodity inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates again due to weakness in the labor market, with unemployment at 4.6% [2] - Housing market data remains limited but indicates a slow recovery, still down year-over-year [2] - The truckload market lacks economic support from demand to indicate a sustained recovery, although supply conditions are tightening [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade for truckers, suggesting a lessened probability of recession and a resilient consumer [12]. Core Insights - The inbound traffic from China to the US has shown slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEUs, indicating a potential moderation in the China surge [1][3]. - Year-over-year growth for laden vessels from China to the US accelerated to the high teens, despite the recent sequential decrease [3][19]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity/orders due to uncertainty [6][9]. - The report suggests that if the economy does not fall into recession and tariff issues stabilize, retailers may face inventory shortages leading to a surge in orders in the second half of 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Trade Patterns - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that the data can be volatile but informative over a multi-week basis [4][5]. - The recent data indicates that traffic from China to the US is outpacing that of Asia, ex-China, with a +16% year-over-year increase for TEUs [3][25]. Freight Demand and Container Rates - Container rates have shown a sequential drop of -2%, potentially foreshadowing a demand drop post the initial surge from China [3]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles increased by +23% sequentially, reflecting the volatility of shipper decisions [37]. Economic Outlook and Inventory Trends - The report highlights that logistics managers' inventory levels are expanding upstream while compressing downstream, indicating a potential mismatch in supply and demand [68][73]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows higher inventory costs, reflecting increased storage costs as inventory builds before moving to consumers [74]. Port Activity and Shipping Volumes - Major ports in the US experienced a -10% year-over-year decline in volumes, with a significant drop of -22% sequentially from April to May [53][59]. - The report notes that the Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) are seeing a strong relationship between inbound volumes and TEU growth from Asia [58][61].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - There has been a notable uptick in inbound freight from China to the US, with container rates from China/Asia to the West Coast surging by 94% due to tightened supply and demand conditions [1][10][37] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and their impact on shipping plans for the upcoming peak seasons creates challenges for shippers [2][7] - The report suggests that if consumer demand remains strong, the anticipated surge in freight may not fully meet the needs of retailers during peak seasons [2] Summary by Sections Freight Flow Trends - Laden vessels from China to the US increased by 9% week-over-week, with a year-over-year decline of 25%, showing signs of recovery [4][15] - Port Optimizer data indicates a projected 26% increase in expected imports into the Port of Los Angeles in the coming weeks [4][41] - Overall throughput at Chinese ports remains solid, up 11% year-over-year, indicating resilience in trade patterns despite tariff impacts [4][30] Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge ahead of a tariff pause or a slowdown in orders due to uncertainty [7][14] - Analysts lean towards the first scenario, suggesting a potential surge in freight demand if consumer spending remains robust [8][14] - The report highlights the challenges posed by high tariffs and the end of de-minimis exemptions for e-commerce, which could dampen demand [9][10] Stock Recommendations - Freight forwarders such as EXPD and CHRW are expected to benefit from increased volatility and potential surges in freight demand during the tariff pause [12][14] - Parcel companies like UPS and FedEx are also positioned to gain from increased air freight demand, particularly if imports spike [12][14] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 3% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the supply chain [10][47] Container Rates and Shipping Dynamics - Container rates have seen a significant increase of 94% due to heightened demand for shipping capacity during the tariff pause [10][37] - Despite recent increases, year-over-year comparisons for ocean rates remain challenging, with rates down 9% compared to the previous year [12][14] - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles rose by 45% sequentially, indicating a potential recovery in shipping activity [41][44]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Universal reported total operating revenue of $382.4 million for Q1 2025, a decline from $491.9 million in the same period last year [4][14] - Net income was $6 million or $0.23 per share, down from $52.5 million or $1.99 per share year-over-year [13][14] - Operating margin for the quarter was 4.1%, compared to 15.3% in Q1 2024 [14] - EBITDA decreased to $51.7 million from $96.9 million year-over-year, reflecting a significant decline [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Contract Logistics**: Revenue was $255.9 million with a 9.3% operating margin, down from $313.5 million and 26% margin last year. The decline was attributed to a lack of specialty project revenue and lower auto production volumes [5][15] - **Trucking**: Revenue decreased by 20.2% to $55.6 million, with a 3.9% operating margin, down from 5.3% last year. A 31.3% drop in volumes was noted, although revenue per load excluding fuel surcharges increased by over 24% [7][17] - **Intermodal**: Revenue fell to $70.7 million, resulting in an operating loss of $10.7 million, compared to a loss of $8.3 million last year. The segment faced a 3.4% drop in volumes and an 8.7% decline in rate per load [9][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive sector showed a sluggish start in January but improved significantly in February and March, with auto production volumes increasing by 29% in February and 67.1% in March compared to January [6][27] - Intermodal volumes also improved, with a 13% increase in February and a 53% increase in March from January [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming underperforming segments and optimizing operations while maintaining a disciplined growth strategy [10] - There is a commitment to enhancing customer relationships and expanding logistics solutions, particularly in the automotive sector [30][32] - The company is actively monitoring tariff impacts and is prepared to adapt its strategies accordingly [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the transportation and logistics landscape but expressed confidence in the company's resilience and long-term strategic direction [3] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 is expected to improve, driven by increased production and operational adjustments [10][32] - Management noted a significant reduction in automotive inventory levels, which could lead to improved production numbers in the latter half of the year [32] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between $100 million and $125 million, with real estate investments between $55 million and $65 million [18] - A quarterly dividend of $1.05 per share was declared, payable on July 1, 2025 [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends with auto OEMs and expectations for the rest of the year - Management noted a slow start in January with a loss, but significant improvements were seen in February and March, indicating a rebound in auto production and logistics volumes [25][27] Question: Inventory management and tariff impacts - A wait-and-see approach is observed among customers regarding inventory and sourcing strategies due to tariff uncertainties [34][35] Question: Geographical dispersion of facilities - The company has a national presence with facilities near major ports and rail networks on both coasts, enhancing its logistics capabilities [37] Question: Potential reduction in imports - Management is aware of a projected 15% reduction in imports starting mid to late May and is monitoring its impact on the intermodal business [39] Question: Impact of flatbed market tightening - The heavy haul business has seen some expansion, but overall pricing in flatbed transportation remains stable without significant upward movement [42]