Market Overview & Economic Factors - Late August is expected to have low liquidity, and September is traditionally the worst month for the S&P 500 [2] - Earnings are expected to grow over 10% year-over-year, about double the consensus [2] - Weak payrolls data (around 73,000) and ISM data raise concerns about the economy [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair is making markets nervous [3] NASDAQ & Tech Sector - The NASDAQ is considered a favorable investment area due to the AI trend, moderating 10-year Treasury yields, and its appeal during economic slowdowns [5] - The AI boom is still active, with companies continuing to invest tens or even hundreds of billions in AI [6] Interest Rates & Fed Policy - A weak August payrolls report could lead to a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 50 basis point cut should be considered [7] - A 4% to 4.5% range is expected for the 10-year Treasury yield for the rest of the year, assuming the economy shows signs of slowing [8] - The Fed is closely watching employment markets, balancing this with the impact of tariffs on inflation [10] - The base case is a 25 basis point rate cut in September, unless August payrolls are significantly weaker [11] - A one-time bump in inflation is expected due to tariffs, but core inflation is trending towards the Fed's target [12] Investment Opportunities - Infrastructure is favored, driven by increased investment in the US on both public and private sides [13][14] - AI data centers and upgrading electrical grids are key areas within infrastructure [14] - Utilities are a strong play for infrastructure, needed to fund electricity for AI and upgrade grids for renewable energy [16]