Core Insights - Bitcoin's on-chain data indicates early warning signs due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is affecting liquidity in both traditional and crypto markets [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1% to 2% in Q4 2025, potentially erasing up to $14 billion in output, with broader implications beyond fiscal uncertainty [2] Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin exchange reserves have increased for the first time in six weeks, rising from 2.38 million BTC to approximately 2.41 million BTC, coinciding with a price drop from $114,000 to near $107,000 [3][4] - This uptick in exchange reserves suggests that investors are preparing for volatility, indicating a defensive positioning as holders may be ready to sell or hedge their positions [5] Group 2: Stablecoin Movements - Stablecoin withdrawal transactions have reached record highs, exceeding 100,000 daily transactions on certain days, reflecting a trend of investors moving assets into private wallets for safety amid market uncertainty [5][6] - The spike in ERC-20 stablecoin outflows from exchanges has accelerated since mid-September, indicating a shift towards self-custody and a cautious approach to deploying funds into riskier crypto assets [6]