AutoNation (NYSE:AN) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsDerek Fiebig - VP of Investor RelationsMichael Manley - CEOThomas Szlosek - CFOConference Call ParticipantsColin Langan - Director and Senior Equity AnalystDaniela Haigian - Equity AnalystJeffrey Lick - Managing Director and Research AnalystJohn Babcock - AnalystJohn Saager - AnalystRajat Gupta - Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorGood morning, everyone. Welcome to AutoNation's Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call ...

AMD is on the first tick it looks like slightly lower. Um it's moving around quite dramatically though. Um fourth quarter adjusted EPS $153.That is way better than the$132 that was expected. Uh looking at revenue 10.27% billion. That is also better than expected by a pretty wide margin.Looking for uh 9.67% billion for an estimate. They provide capex numbers of 222 million uh which is actually lower than the estimate. Um all things considered seems relatively contained compared to some of the other numbers w ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fully diluted earnings per share was $1.39, a 63% increase year-over-year and a 16% increase from the previous quarter [3] - Net interest margin improved for the seventh consecutive quarter, up 15 basis points to 2.61% [3] - Return on common equity improved to 15% [3] - Net income for the quarter was $60.9 million, an increase of $7.6 million from the previous quarter [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loans and deposits both grew modestly in the quarter, with non-interest-bearing demand deposits growing 6.6% on a linked basis [3] - Consumer loans represent 57% of total loans, approximately $8 billion, with 86% consisting of residential mortgage and home equity loans [8] - Commercial lending portfolio totals $6.1 billion, representing 43% of total loans, with 73% secured by real estate [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bank of Hawaii continues to lead in deposit market share in Hawaii, with market share growth advancing another 40 basis points in 2025 [4] - The average quarterly mix shift of deposits was $25 million compared to $340 million in 2024, indicating a shift from non-interest-bearing to higher-cost deposits [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its unique core Hawaii market and dominant brand position to create superior risk-adjusted returns [4] - The focus remains on improving customer service and expanding market share, with a strong emphasis on both consumer and commercial segments [51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth of non-interest-bearing deposits, although they expect growth rates to moderate from the current quarter's 6% [25] - The outlook for loan growth in 2026 is projected to be mid-single digits, with expectations for improved pipelines in both consumer and commercial lending [29][54] Other Important Information - The company reported a provision for credit losses of $2.5 million, unchanged from the linked quarter, resulting in a coverage ratio of 1.04% [19] - Capital ratios remained above regulatory thresholds, with Tier 1 capital at 14.5% and total risk-based capital at 15.5% [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Non-interest-bearing deposit growth - Management noted a 6% increase in non-interest-bearing deposits, attributing it to a balanced contribution from business segments, but expects growth to moderate [25] Question: Loan pipeline outlook - Management indicated a positive outlook for loan pipelines, with expectations for mid-single-digit growth in 2026 [29][54] Question: Margin update - Management confirmed that the margin target of near 290 is an end-of-year goal, not a fourth-quarter average [33] Question: Special mention and classified balances - Special mention balances at the end of the fourth quarter were $63.4 million, down from the previous year, indicating strong credit quality [39] Question: Fee income opportunities - Management highlighted growth in wealth management fees and a strong pipeline, with expectations for continued growth [75]

Core Insights - Palm Valley Capital Fund's performance in Q4 2025 was a 0.66% appreciation, underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600's 1.70% gain and the Morningstar Small Cap Total Return Index's 3.12% rise [1] - The Fund increased its allocation to Treasury bills from 74.1% to 76.3% during the quarter, while equity holdings rose by 1.12% [1] - Precious metals, particularly silver, significantly influenced the Fund's equity performance, which has been a major allocation for several years [1] Company Focus: Utz Brands, Inc. - Utz Brands, Inc. is a U.S.-based manufacturer of salty snacks, with a one-month return of 0.51% and a 52-week loss of 30.53% [2] - As of January 5, 2026, Utz's stock closed at $9.83 per share, with a market capitalization of $860.221 million [2] - The Fund initiated a position in Utz Brands during Q4 2025, alongside Domino's Pizza Group and Ingredion, with initial weightings being modest due to reaching minimum required discounts [3] - Utz has invested heavily in productivity and geographic expansion, averaging $100 million in capital expenditures annually over the past two years, with expectations to normalize to $60-$70 million in 2026 [3] - The company enjoys attractive margins, consistent demand, and strong free cash flow potential, with brands like Boulder Canyon chips performing well due to consumer demand for healthier snacks [3] - At the time of purchase, Utz shares traded at approximately 12 times the 2026 free cash flow estimate and offered a 2.6% dividend yield [3]

Core Viewpoint - Verizon Communications is facing challenges despite its 6.6% dividend yield, which has been described as "sacrosanct" by the CEO, Daniel Schulman. The company has a history of increasing dividends for 19 consecutive years, but the growth has been modest compared to inflation [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - Verizon reported $134.8 billion in revenue for 2024 and serves 146.1 million wireless retail connections, covering 99% of Fortune 500 companies and 99% of the U.S. population with its 4G LTE service [5]. - The company has lost 30% of its market share since 2017 and is now ranked No. 3 in the telecom industry, indicating heightened competition [6]. - In the last quarter, Verizon lost 7,000 postpaid phone customers and laid off 13,000 employees, reflecting dissatisfaction with its performance [7]. Dividend Analysis - Verizon's dividend has increased by only 1.8% this year, which is below the annual inflation rate of 3%. Since 2020, the dividend has grown by 12%, also lagging behind inflation [2][12]. - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.69 per share, amounting to $2.92 billion in dividends next quarter, which is less than half of the $7 billion in cash flow from operating activities [10]. - Verizon has paid off $9.4 billion in debt over the last year, which is nearly equivalent to the $11.2 billion paid in dividends for 2024, allowing for potential flexibility in maintaining dividends [11]. Strategic Outlook - The new CEO aims to reclaim network leadership, with some positive indicators such as 306,000 net adds in the broadband segment, totaling 13.2 million subscribers [8]. - Efficiency gains have led to a record $7 billion in free cash flow for the company, marking a 17% year-over-year increase [9]. - While the dividend is expected to remain stable, future hikes may be minimal, making it less appealing for long-term investors due to inflation concerns [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $53.2 million, a sequential improvement from $50.7 million in Q1, but a decline from $55.7 million in the prior year period [26] - Consolidated gross profit for the quarter was $5.8 million, or 10.9% of sales, compared to $6 million, or 10.8% of sales in the prior year [26] - SG&A expense for the quarter was $8.7 million, reflecting a 7% improvement compared to the prior year [27] - Loss from operations was $3.5 million, an improvement from a loss of $5.4 million in the prior year [27] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $1 million, an improvement from negative $1.1 million in the prior year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bedding segment sales for Q2 were $30.8 million, up approximately 10% sequentially and over 2% year-over-year [30] - Gross profit in the bedding segment was $3.1 million, or 10.1% of sales, a 200 basis points improvement from the prior year [31] - Upholstery segment sales for Q2 were $22.4 million, flat sequentially but down approximately 12% year-over-year [31] - Gross profit in the upholstery segment was $3.6 million, or 16.1% of sales, down from $4.3 million, or 16.9% of sales in the prior year [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The home furnishings industry continues to face significant challenges, with low consumer confidence and high levels of unsold homes impacting sales [7][20] - The bedding market is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for an increase in unit activity driven by historical product replacement cycles [19][20] - Upholstery business remains impacted by weak consumer sentiment and housing market conditions, particularly affecting lower and middle-income segments [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on winning market share and adjusting its cost structure to achieve profitability in the current market cycle [8] - A comprehensive restructuring project has been completed, expected to yield approximately $11 million in annualized cost savings [14][18] - The integration of the bedding and upholstery divisions aims to create a unified Culp-branded business, enhancing operational efficiency [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenging demand environment for home furnishings but expects steady consolidated sales performance in the near term [36] - The company anticipates continued improvement in operating loss and near break-even to positive Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 [36] - Management remains cautious about the timing of market recovery but is positioning the company to capitalize on future demand increases [45][46] Other Important Information - The company has a net debt position of $7.6 million and continues to manage liquidity and capital expenditures aggressively [32][34] - The company is owed approximately $4.7 million from the sale of its Canada facility, expected to be received in Q3 [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the realization status of the cost savings? - Management indicated that significant savings are being realized, with most expected to be fully realized by Q4 [41][44] Question: What will be the incremental margin on the next point of sales growth? - Management confirmed that there is built-up leverage to capitalize on any increase in sales, with fixed costs in place to retain a significant portion of incremental dollars [47][48] Question: What is the status of the new tariffs in Turkey and Haiti? - Management explained that recent tariff changes have created challenges, but the company is well-positioned to navigate these issues [49][50]

Media Industry & Antitrust Concerns - Potential merger of Netflix and Warner Brothers raises antitrust concerns due to significant market share, requiring government review to prevent monopolies and protect consumers [2][3][4] - The Department of Justice (DOJ) has an antitrust division to test the legitimacy of market share, but the independence of the DOJ is crucial to avoid political interference [4][5] - Trump's prior involvement in the AT&T/Warner merger faced criticism, and his current expressed intent to be "personally involved" in the Netflix/Warner merger raises conflict of interest concerns [5][6][7] - Jared Kushner's involvement in a hostile bid by Paramount (backed by the Ellison's) to buy Warner instead of Netflix creates a conflict of interest, as his family could potentially profit [6][7] - Government intervention to favor specific companies or punish political opponents through media oversight could be an abuse of power [10] Political Influence & Power Dynamics - Concerns are raised about Donald Trump's attempts to shape culture and exert influence over government institutions, potentially undermining their independence [1][16][17] - Trump ousted the board of the Kennedy Center to install loyalists, deviating from the historical bipartisan balance [13][14] - Trump renamed the Institute of Peace after himself, indicating a pattern of personalizing government institutions [14] - The Trump administration is seeking more power before the Supreme Court, raising concerns about the potential for a monarchy-like system [15][17] - Justice Sotomayor warns that granting the president unqualified removal power could lead to a corrupt patronage system [17][20]

Core Insights - Verizon is undergoing significant leadership changes and operational restructuring to address recent customer losses and market challenges [1][2][3] Leadership Changes - Verizon replaced CEO Hans Vestberg with Dan Schulman, former CEO of PayPal, on October 6, 2025, amid declining customer numbers [1] - Schulman criticized the company's performance, stating it is "clearly falling short" of its potential due to price increases and customer experience issues [2][3] Customer Loss and Churn Rate - In Q3 2025, Verizon lost 7,000 postpaid phone customers, resulting in a churn rate of 0.91% [2] - Schulman noted that customer satisfaction scores are lower than competitors, attributing this to complex offers and lack of financial flexibility for employees [5][6] Operational Restructuring - Verizon laid off over 13,000 employees to simplify operations and focus on customer-centric strategies [3][4] - Schulman emphasized the need for aggressive transformation to improve shareholder value and customer experience [3][4] Market Position and Competition - Verizon has lost 500 to 700 basis points of market share over the past five years, leading to increased pressure on revenue [5] - The company faces heightened competition, with customer satisfaction scores for postpaid plans below the industry average [6][16] Industry Trends - The telecommunications sector has seen significant layoffs, with Verizon accounting for a large portion of job cuts in November 2025 [11][17] - Job cuts in the telecom industry reached 15,139 in November, marking the highest monthly total since April 2020 [17]

Core Insights - T-Mobile US, Inc. is a significant player in the wireless telecommunications industry, known for competitive pricing and innovative promotions, which have contributed to its substantial market share [1] - KeyBanc upgraded T-Mobile to a Sector Weight rating, indicating a neutral performance expectation in line with the market [2][5] - T-Mobile's recent "Black Friday" promotion is aimed at capturing a larger market share during the holiday season, potentially attracting many new subscribers [3][5] Stock Performance - Following the upgrade, T-Mobile's stock price decreased by 1.14%, or $2.38, settling at $206.63, with trading between $205.58 and $209.11 on that day [4][5] - Over the past year, T-Mobile's stock has experienced a high of $276.49 and a low of $199.41, with a current market capitalization of approximately $231.14 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is expected to maintain oil output levels for the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to market dynamics amid concerns of a potential supply glut [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ meetings are scheduled for Sunday, where the decision on oil output levels will be discussed [1] - Delegates indicate a moderation in efforts to regain market share, suggesting a strategic pause in production increases [1] - The decision comes in light of fears regarding an impending oversupply in the oil market [1]