November 19, 2025 10:07 PM GMT ANTA Sports | Asia Pacific M Update Asia Pacific Summit 2025 Feedback At our Summit, ANTA commented that sales trend in 4QTD is on track with management's guidance. We think group sales growth will accelerate in 4Q25 vs. 3Q25, which is encouraging given higher base. Key Takeaways 2026 Outlook – Initial Thoughts: With ANTA brand beyond Rmb40bn retail GMV and FILA beyond Rmb30bn retail GMV, group sales are more exposed to macro dynamics. However, the company expects a few growth ...

All right, some breaking news earlier this hour. It is pretty shocking. Uh Walmart CEO Doug McMillan announcing that he will retire.John Ferner is going to be taking over as CEO on February 1st. Joining us right now is Stacy Whit. She is with SS SSW Retail Advisors.And Stacy, the market sold off on this news. Right now, Walmart shares off by 2 and 3/4%. Uh Doug's been a stalwart.he has really led that company to impressive levels not only in the market cap but also with what he's done in terms of diversifyi ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated $2.7 billion in revenue and $638 million in adjusted EBITDA, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24% [6][17] - Revenue decreased by 3% year-over-year due to lower volumes, while adjusted earnings per diluted share were $3.67 [17][18] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $752 million, an increase from $558 million in the same period last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Roofing Business**: Revenue was $1.2 billion, up 2% from the prior year, driven by positive price realization despite flat volumes. EBITDA was $423 million, maintaining a 34% margin [20][22] - **Insulation Business**: Revenue decreased by 7% to $941 million, primarily due to lower demand for residential products. EBITDA margins were 23%, resulting in $212 million in EBITDA [23][24] - **Doors Business**: Revenue was $545 million, down 5% from the prior year, with EBITDA of $56 million and margins of 10% [24][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. roofing market faced a uniquely quiet storm season, with no named storms making landfall, impacting demand [8][22] - Residential trends in the U.S. are weakening, affecting volumes in both repair and remodel and new construction product lines [8][10] - Non-residential construction activity in North America is expected to decline slightly, while European markets are anticipated to gradually improve [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining strong cash generation capabilities and disciplined capital allocation, with a commitment to return $2 billion to shareholders over 2025 and 2026 [7][19] - Strategic investments are being made to enhance market-leading positions, including a new plant in Alabama for roofing and a new fiberglass line in Kansas City for insulation [11][12] - The divestiture of the glass reinforcements business is targeted for completion by the end of the year [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to achieve margin and cash flow goals despite current financial performance challenges [9][10] - The outlook for Q4 anticipates revenue to be approximately $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion, down mid to high teens versus the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to be around 16-18% [29][30] - The company expects to see a gradual recovery in the European market and improved housing affordability in the U.S. as mortgage rates decline [10][29] Other Important Information - The company was recognized as one of the 100 Best Corporate Citizens, ranking third for its environmental, social, and governance performance [15] - The company continues to focus on operational efficiencies and cost synergies, with a target of achieving $125 million in enterprise cost synergies by the end of the second year of ownership [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about roofing margins and pricing pressure - Management indicated that pricing has remained positive throughout the year, driven by the value provided to contractors and distributors, despite typical seasonal pressures [37][39] Question: Non-residential demand and project delays - Management noted project delays in both the U.S. and Mexico, viewing them as shifts from quarter to quarter and potentially into 2026 [42][44] Question: Doors segment impairment and market share - Management explained the impairment was due to near-term market weakness, but they remain confident in long-term earnings potential and are focused on cost synergies [46][48] Question: Inventory destocking and its impact - Management expects inventory destocking to normalize in Q1, with cautious buying behavior anticipated from distributors [71][73]

Core Insights - Chipotle reported a slight increase in same-store sales of 0.3% in the third quarter, following two consecutive negative quarters, although transaction numbers remained negative [1][2] - CEO Scott Boatwright indicated that the disappointing results were partly self-inflicted, but primarily due to a significant pullback from their core audience, particularly households earning under $100,000 [2][3] - The company has adjusted its same-store sales forecast downward for the third consecutive quarter, now expecting a low-single-digit decline for the full year, which negatively impacted its stock price [3] Sales and Customer Trends - 40% of Chipotle's total sales come from households with incomes below $100,000, a demographic that has reduced spending across various sectors [2] - Younger consumers aged 25 to 35, a key demographic for Chipotle, are also dining out less frequently, contributing to the decline in transactions [2][3] - Despite the decline in visit frequency, Chipotle is gaining market share, with customers shifting their spending from restaurants to grocery and food-at-home options [3] Strategic Initiatives - Chipotle is implementing a plan to reverse recent trends, focusing on in-restaurant execution, enhanced marketing, improved digital experiences, and menu innovation [4] - The company has increased its marketing efforts and introduced new menu items, such as carne asada and red chimichurri, which received positive consumer feedback [4] - Chipotle plans to maintain a conservative pricing strategy despite anticipated high inflation in 2026, aiming to enhance the overall value proposition while managing margin pressures [5] Loyalty Program Enhancements - The company intends to enhance its loyalty program by targeting inactive consumers to drive engagement and sales [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a decline in volume in North America by 4% compared to a 2.8% average year-to-date, indicating a slowdown in the market [20][21] - The company expects a step-up in organic net revenue growth for Q4, guiding more than 4% growth [13][46] - The company anticipates high single-digit EPS growth for 2026, despite planned investments [15][72] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, the chocolate business faced a 30% price increase due to cocoa costs, but overall performance is in line with expectations [5][9] - The U.S. biscuit category is under pressure, with promotional strategies not delivering expected returns [21][66] - Emerging markets showed a 4.7% volume decline, primarily affected by Argentina's economic situation and pricing strategies in India [39][40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer confidence in Europe remains stable, but there are pockets of pressure due to competitive pricing and retailer margin increases [5][6] - In the U.S., consumers are shifting towards value-oriented purchases, impacting overall basket sizes and category performance [20][21] - Emerging markets like Brazil showed double-digit growth, while China experienced low single-digit growth, indicating mixed performance across regions [41][40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on optimizing pricing strategies and promotional effectiveness to regain growth in North America [24][66] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation with new flavors and formats to drive consumer engagement [8][15] - The company plans to invest in supply chain improvements and automation to enhance profitability and service levels [48][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the cocoa cost environment is expected to improve, which should positively impact margins going forward [9][14] - The company is cautious about the U.S. market outlook, projecting continued challenges but also opportunities for growth through channel expansion [29][46] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential in emerging markets, despite short-term pressures [40][41] Other Important Information - The company is implementing a multi-year North America supply chain program aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency [48][50] - There is a focus on maintaining a balance between protecting profit margins and offering value to consumers [66][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on European market pricing and elasticity - Management indicated that price elasticity in Europe is currently around 0.7 to 0.8, higher than historical norms, and adjustments are being made to address pricing issues [34][36] Question: U.S. market growth strategy - Management acknowledged the need to protect profit pools while also focusing on value through pack price architecture adjustments [66][68] Question: Expectations for North America in Q4 - The company expects a rebound in North America driven by improved pricing strategies and promotional effectiveness [46][72] Question: Impact of cocoa prices on future guidance - Management stated that cocoa prices are being monitored closely, with strategies in place to benefit from potential declines [14][28] Question: SG&A cost structure and future investments - Management outlined that SG&A reductions are not entirely permanent, with plans for increased spending in 2026 to support growth initiatives [55][72]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report analyzes brand mind-share in the Chinese consumer market using Baidu search data, which holds a nearly 70% market share in web searches in China. This analysis provides insights into consumer interest and potential market-share movements [1][2][3]. E-Commerce Sector - **Alibaba** regained the top position with a 4% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase, attributed to online delivery initiatives and the launch of an open-source AI agent [2][14]. - **JD.com** fell to second place with a 10% QoQ decline in search hits [2][14]. - **Pinduoduo**, **Ctrip**, and **VIP.com** ranked third, fourth, and fifth, with respective increases of 1%, 7%, and 7% in search hits QoQ [2][14]. IP & Pop Toys - **Pop Mart** maintained its top position despite a 64% QoQ decline in search hits, influenced by a high base from the previous quarter [5]. - The overall sector saw a 48% QoQ decrease in hits but a 12% year-over-year (YoY) increase [5]. Apparel Sector - The sportswear segment experienced a 13% QoQ decline in hits, with **Arc'teryx** rising to first place (+30%) due to a controversial marketing campaign [3]. - **Nike** dropped to third place with a 26% decline in hits, while **Adidas** remained second with a 17% decline [3]. Restaurant & Food Retailers - Restaurant search hits were flat QoQ (-1%) and down 22% YoY. The rankings remained unchanged with **KFC** and **McDonald's** in the top two positions, both experiencing a 4% decline in hits [4]. - Freshly-made drinks saw an 8% QoQ decline and a 48% YoY decline, with **Mixue** rising to first place (+75% QoQ) due to collaborations and brand ambassador appointments [4]. Soft Drinks and Dairy - The soft drinks sector saw an 18% QoQ increase in hits, with **Wahaha** overtaking **Coca-Cola** to become the top brand (+101% QoQ) [11]. - Dairy products also experienced a 25% QoQ increase in hits, with **Wahaha** leading the category [11]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector saw a 2% QoQ decline in hits, with **Midea** remaining the top brand (+7% QoQ) [10]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector experienced a 9% QoQ decline in hits, with **Louis Vuitton**, **Chanel**, and **Dior** maintaining the top three positions [13]. Automotive Sector - The luxury automotive segment saw a 10% QoQ decline, while electric vehicles (EVs) experienced a 3% increase. **Audi** remained the top luxury auto brand with a 3% increase in hits [15]. Mobile Search Trends - Mobile search queries accounted for 70% of total search queries, indicating a stable trend in mobile penetration across various categories [16]. Brand Rankings - The top searched brands across various categories remained largely stable, with notable mentions including **Cartier** in jewelry, **Wuliangye** in spirits, and **Arc'teryx** in sportswear [8][17]. Conclusion - The analysis highlights the dynamic nature of the Chinese consumer market, with significant shifts in brand rankings and consumer preferences across various sectors. The data from Baidu searches serves as a valuable indicator of brand strength and market trends [1][2][3].

Market Share & Revenue Growth - Bonkfun's market share increased from 5.5% to 15.5% [2] - Bonkfun's daily revenue increased significantly from $20 thousand to $200 thousand [2] - Bonkfun's daily volume increased from $8.6 million to $20 million [2] Partnership Impact - The Project Wings initiative with $WLFI and Raydium has significantly impacted Bonkfun's core metrics since September 14 [1] - USD1 on Raydium has processed over $4 billion in transfer volume, with over 95% of USD1 liquidity concentrated there [1] - A significant portion of the $4 billion volume on Raydium is likely flowing through Bonkfun's platform due to their exclusive USD1 partnership [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a turnaround, but the current valuation may limit upside potential, necessitating quicker improvements to see share price increases [2][4]. Valuation Concerns - Shares are trading at approximately 40 times next 12-month earnings and 30 times earnings for two years out, raising concerns about valuation [2]. - The risk is perceived to be on the downside unless there is a significant earnings beat and positive guidance [5]. Guidance Importance - Guidance is crucial, especially as it pertains to the upcoming holiday season, which is a key period for sales [3]. - Expectations for earnings next year are around $250 million, with potential upside if earnings exceed this significantly [5]. Market Share and Competition - The company is not currently gaining market share from competitors like Hoka or OnQ, but there are expectations for future gains [4]. - The company has a global business model, with only 44% of sales coming from North America, providing some insulation from tariff impacts [4].

Core Insights - The launch of the iPhone 17 lineup has generated record-breaking pre-orders in China and increased production, indicating potential shifts in Apple's growth and revenue [1] - The new iPhone models feature significant upgrades, including the A19 Pro chip and improved battery life, which may lead to strong holiday sales and a healthy upgrade cycle [2] Market Position Impact - The iPhone 17 lineup enhances Apple's position in the premium smartphone market, but faces challenges from intense competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers and AI-driven devices [4] - The performance of the iPhone 17 series during the holiday season is crucial for future earnings and stock sentiment, as flagship iPhone sales remain a key revenue source [5] Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Apple's stock has shown moderate fluctuations around the iPhone 17 launch, with mixed investor reactions; early demand appears higher than last year, supporting an Overweight rating from Morgan Stanley [6] - Despite some analyst downgrades due to perceived underwhelming innovation and competitive pressures, Apple's pricing strategy on premium models may help sustain earnings [7]