Summary of Aier Eye Hospital Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Aier Eye Hospital (300015.SZ) - **Industry**: Ophthalmology healthcare services in China Key Financial Results - **1H25 Revenue**: Rmb11,507 million, up 9.1% year-over-year (yoy), slower than expected (-1.6% vs. Goldman Sachs estimate) [1][2] - **1H25 Net Profits**: Rmb2,051 million, up 0.1% yoy, but down 9.9% vs. Goldman Sachs estimate due to lower non-operating income [1][5] - **EBIT**: Not explicitly stated, but implied to be in line with expectations [5] Segment Performance - **Refractive Surgery Revenue**: Grew by 11% yoy in 1H25, indicating strong demand despite weak consumption confidence [2][4] - **Optometry Services Revenue**: Increased by 15% yoy in 1H25, reflecting robust growth [2][4] - **Cataract Surgery Revenue**: Only grew by 3% yoy, attributed to: - Tightening national healthcare insurance budget in 2Q25 - Delayed demand due to weak macroeconomic conditions [2][4] Market Dynamics - **Demand Pull-Forward**: Earlier admissions for military academy/military recruitment created a pull-forward effect, impacting 2Q25 demand [1][2] - **Technological Advancements**: The company is promoting new technologies in refractive surgery (e.g., SMILE pro) to maintain average selling prices (ASP) and avoid price competition with smaller hospitals [2][11] Future Outlook - **Cataract Surgery**: Expected gradual improvement in 2H25 as the company adapts to the tightening budget [2] - **Target Market**: Increasing opportunities from the 50+ demographic with a net worth over Rmb3 million, particularly in premium treatments [11] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Price Target**: Rmb15, with an upside of 8.5% from the current price of Rmb13.83 [12][14] - **Investment Rating**: Buy, supported by improving fundamentals and attractive risk-reward profile [11][12] - **Revised Profit Estimates**: Net profit estimates adjusted down by 2.6% for 2025E due to lower non-operating income and slight pressure on gross profit margin (GPM) [9][10] Risks - **Cataract Surgery Premiumization**: Risk of slower-than-expected premiumization trend [12] - **Price Competition**: Intensifying price competition in refractive surgery [12] - **Policy Impact**: Potential pricing pressure from policies related to OK lenses [12] Additional Insights - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Decreased to 48.6% in 1H25 from 49.4% in 1H24, primarily due to lower margins from newly opened flagship hospitals with high investment costs [9]