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This Costco-Like Retailer Trades at a Much Cheaper Valuation Than Costco. Is It a Buy?
The Motley Fool· 2025-11-24 01:43
Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is trading at a significant discount compared to Costco, presenting an interesting investment opportunity for those who find Costco's stock too expensive [1]. Membership and Sales Trends - BJ's total fiscal third-quarter revenue increased by 4.9% year over year to $5.35 billion, with comparable sales growing by 1.1%, and adjusted for gasoline prices, they rose by 1.8% [5]. - Membership fee income surged by 9.8% to $126.3 million, driven by higher-tier membership penetration and fee increases [5]. - Digitally enabled comparable sales grew by 30% year over year, indicating a significant increase in online sales contribution [7]. Profitability and Operating Performance - BJ's operating income declined by 4.8% year over year to $218.4 million, while net income slipped by 2.4% to $152.1 million due to rising labor and occupancy costs [6]. - The company expects comparable club sales, excluding gasoline, to rise by 2% to 3% for the full fiscal year and has raised its adjusted earnings-per-share outlook to a range of $4.30 to $4.40 [7][8]. Valuation Comparison - BJ's trades at approximately 19 times forward earnings and about 0.6 times sales, while Costco trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 44 and 1.4 times sales [11]. - The valuation gap reflects BJ's slower growth profile, with total revenue increasing by 4.3% year over year to $15.9 billion for the first nine months of fiscal 2025, compared to Costco's 8.2% revenue growth [10][11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - BJ's operates fewer than 300 clubs, while Costco has over 900, which contributes to Costco's stronger brand recognition and sales volume [12]. - BJ's must demonstrate its ability to achieve sustained sales growth and competitive advantages in a crowded market that includes Costco and Walmart's Sam's Club [14]. Investment Perspective - BJ's current valuation appears reasonable for a membership-based retailer with positive comparable sales and increasing membership fees, making it a solid alternative for investors seeking exposure to the warehouse club model [15].