Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading at $104,376, having experienced a decline from recent highs of $111,190 and $111,250 over the weekend [1] - Despite significant global liquidity increases, including $125 billion injected by the US Federal Reserve and China's M2 money supply reaching $47 trillion, Bitcoin's price has not responded positively [2][5] Group 1: Liquidity Dynamics - The relationship between liquidity and Bitcoin prices is becoming increasingly complex, with the notion that expanding liquidity will automatically lead to higher Bitcoin prices being deemed simplistic [3] - The recent liquidity injections by the Fed are aimed at stabilizing short-term funding markets rather than stimulating broader risk-taking, which affects market liquidity that typically flows into assets like Bitcoin [4] Group 2: China’s Monetary Expansion - China's M2 money supply has reached approximately $47.1 trillion, more than double that of the US, which stands at around $22.2 trillion, highlighting a significant liquidity gap [5][6] - This unprecedented gap in liquidity dynamics reflects China's long-term credit expansion strategy focused on infrastructure and exports rather than speculative markets [6]

Group 1 - Gold has risen 38% year to date in 2025, outperforming bitcoin's 23% increase [1] - Despite its recent performance, gold remains below its 2011 peak and at a similar level to 1975 when adjusted for M2 growth [2] - Bitcoin has consistently reached new highs relative to M2 during each bull cycle, including a record high last month [2] Group 2 - The contrasting performances of gold and bitcoin highlight their different roles as assets, with gold serving as a traditional hedge and stabilizer, while bitcoin responds uniquely to rapid monetary expansion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current crypto bull market is expected to continue, driven by early-stage global monetary trends and aggressive monetary expansion by governments worldwide [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Political Landscape - U.S. politics, particularly the potential spending programs from President Trump's second term, could significantly influence market liquidity from mid-2026 onward [2]. - Expectations for extreme money printing may lead to partial profit-taking, but currently, investors are underestimating the liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The erosion of a unipolar world order is seen as a catalyst for increased fiscal stimulus and central bank easing, as policymakers respond to periods of instability [3]. - Potential strains within Europe, including the risk of a French default, could further accelerate global monetary expansion [4]. Group 3: Bitcoin's Performance and Market Position - Bitcoin's performance is contrasted with other asset classes, showing that while U.S. stocks have increased in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis [5]. - Traditional benchmarks appear weak when measured against bitcoin, highlighting its dominance in the current market [6][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The perspective that governments will print money during economic downturns is shared by both traditional finance and crypto investors, with the latter viewing bitcoin as a superior asset [7]. - Patience is emphasized as crucial for bitcoin holders, with the real advantage coming from long-term compounding rather than short-term speculation [7]. - The current crypto cycle is anticipated to extend well into 2026, indicating that it is far from exhausted [8].

In an interview with Jordan B. Peterson, Michael Saylor pointed out that technological progress should naturally lead to lower prices, yet in reality, people rarely feel its effects. The key reason lies in monetary expansion. If productivity rises 20% a year, prices should drop 20%.But if the money supply grows 10%, prices only fall 10%.That missing 10%? It's quietly stolen through inflation. Gold, once seen as sound money, isn’t perfect. Fiat is worse—currencies like the Argentine peso and Russian ruble ha ...