Market Analysis - The market is unlikely to experience an "everything rally" similar to the 2020-21 alt season due to the current era of fiscal dominance [1] - Select altcoins might experience valuation increases, but this is considered difficult given the current economic environment [1] - The current environment differs from 2020-21 due to central banks not engaging in quantitative easing (QE) and maintaining high interest rates [2] Economic Factors - During 2020-21, near-zero interest rates, massive QE, and cash handouts injected broad-based liquidity, causing a Cantillon effect where financial markets and asset holders saw price surges [1] - Today's fiscal spending is targeted at reindustrialization and infrastructure to outgrow debt and reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio [2] - Fiscal dominance involves fiscal policy setting the tone, with the central bank accommodating, but without creating base money in the same broad sense as QE [3] Investment Strategy - Fiscal-driven capital expenditure (capex) cycles affect real economy investment, leading to dispersion instead of "everything up" [4] - Sectors, commodities, and store of value assets like gold and Bitcoin may perform well, along with stablecoins as an escape valve amid capital controls [4] - Altcoins, which rely on central bank-induced excess liquidity, may lag or fail to participate fully [4] Future Outlook - An "alt season" like 2021 is unlikely unless central banks pivot back to aggressive monetary easing [4] - The market is in a "wait and see" mode to observe future developments [4]