Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, while China's central bank is likely to resist immediate policy easing due to concerns about a weak economy and a hot stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Policymakers in China are under pressure to prevent a sharp economic slowdown that could threaten jobs and social stability, while also avoiding past mistakes that led to a market crash [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting its policy, despite potential room for easing following a Fed rate cut [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC has already cut its key policy rate by 10 basis points and reduced banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points as part of broader stimulus measures [5]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may avoid immediate rate cuts if the stock market rally continues, to prevent inflating a bubble, but a modest 10-basis-point cut could occur if markets correct [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current stock market rally in China is primarily driven by institutional investors, with retail investors beginning to participate, while households hold a record 160 trillion yuan ($22.45 trillion) in savings [6].