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Grupo Supervielle(SUPV) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-26 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of ARS 50.3 billion in Q3 2025, significantly impacted by high real interest rates and tight monetary policy [3][4][6] - Net financial income declined by 43% sequentially due to increased funding costs and local market volatility [6] - The CET1 ratio was 13.2% at the end of the quarter, improving to 14.5% in October [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was solid, up 8% in real terms, primarily driven by the corporate segment, while retail lending slightly declined [4] - The NPL ratio rose to 3.9%, mainly due to retail loans, but the NPL share of individuals remains below the retail loan share [4][5] - Deposit growth was strong, increasing by 15% quarter on quarter and over 40% year on year, with dollar deposits reaching a record high [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates real loan growth of 35%-40% for the full year 2025, led by corporate lending [7] - NIM is projected to be between 15%-18% for the full year, reflecting the impact of high interest rates [8] - The company expects an NPL ratio between 4.7%-5.1% and a net cost of risk of 5.8%-6.3% for the full year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing customer engagement and expanding cross-sell opportunities, particularly through its super app and Invertir Online [5] - Strategic initiatives are aimed at unlocking the full value of the franchise and returning to profitability [2][5] - The company plans to tap into international markets for funding if conditions allow, indicating a strategy to increase leverage [82] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the post-election environment, noting early signs of stabilization and improving confidence [2][3] - The company is preparing for a gradual recovery in loan demand, particularly from corporates and SMEs, as economic conditions improve [31] - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in Q3 but emphasized a focus on controlling costs and investing in business growth [5][6] Other Important Information - The political landscape in Argentina is shifting, with significant changes expected in governance and economic reforms following the recent elections [10][11] - The company is open to strategic alliances and partnerships to adapt to the evolving market conditions [67][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth expectations and segment growth - Management indicated that loan growth is expected to be led by corporates and SMEs, with retail lending picking up later in 2026 as economic conditions improve [31][32] Question: ROE expectations for next year - Management expects ROE to be in the high single digits or low double digits for 2026, depending on the pace of economic recovery and regulatory changes [51][52] Question: Corporate vs. retail loan mix - The company aims for a balanced loan mix, with corporate loans currently exceeding 50% of the total, and expects retail loans to increase as consumer confidence improves [58][59] Question: Asset quality and NPL dynamics - Management anticipates that NPLs may peak in Q4 2025, with gradual improvement expected as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [76][77] Question: Liquidity conditions and growth constraints - Management noted that liquidity conditions are improving post-elections, with expectations for increased deposit growth and a focus on capturing stable deposits [86]