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2026 Set Up for Continuation Rally
Youtube· 2025-12-24 15:57
Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]
Crude Oil Gains Over 1%; AT&T Shares Slide After Q3 Results
Benzinga· 2025-10-22 17:13
Company Performance - AT&T Inc. reported operating revenues of $30.71 billion for its fiscal third quarter, a 1.6% increase year-over-year, but below the analyst consensus estimate of $30.87 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for AT&T stood at $0.54, which was in line with analyst expectations [2] Market Movements - Vicor Corporation shares surged 28% to $84.29 after reporting better-than-expected quarterly financial results [8] - Winnebago Industries, Inc. saw its shares increase by 24% to $39.19 following better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and FY26 guidance above estimates [8] - Beyond Meat, Inc. shares rose 101% to $7.27, driven by factors such as short interest and a distribution partnership with Walmart [8] - Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. shares plummeted 59% to $9.42 after announcing interim results from its Phase 2 clinical trial [8] - Alector, Inc. shares fell 50% to $1.6000 after announcing the discontinuation of an open-label extension and a workforce reduction of about 49% [8] - Obook Holdings Inc. experienced a decline of 37% to $12.19, likely due to post-IPO volatility [8]