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Equifax's Cloud Not A Moat, Analyst Says In Downgrade Slashing Estimates
Benzingaยท 2025-06-23 18:09
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities downgraded Equifax, Inc. from Buy to Neutral due to underwhelming performance during the company's recent investor day and tempered growth expectations [1][4]. Financial Projections - Equifax projects a long-term revenue growth rate of 8%-12%, with 7%-10% expected to be organic growth and 1%-2% from mergers and acquisitions [1]. - For fiscal 2025, Equifax guided revenues between $5.91 billion and $6.03 billion, slightly below the consensus of $5.96 billion [2]. - The company anticipates adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.25-$7.65, compared to the consensus of $7.48 [2]. Sales and Earnings Estimates - Equifax expects second-quarter sales between $1.49 billion and $1.53 billion, aligning closely with the consensus of $1.5 billion [3]. - Adjusted EPS for the second quarter is projected to be $1.85-$1.95, slightly below the consensus of $1.89 [3]. - Analyst Joshua Dennerlein revised 2025 adjusted EPS estimates down to $7.58 from $7.63 and 2026 estimates to $8.91 from $9.22, indicating reduced growth expectations [3]. Analyst Insights - The analyst expressed disappointment that Equifax did not update its long-term growth outlook, which was initially provided in 2021 [4]. - Concerns were raised regarding Equifax's transition to a cloud-native platform, which may not provide a long-term competitive advantage [5]. - Future growth is expected to rely on product innovation leveraging unique data assets, rather than solely on the cloud transformation [5]. Market Conditions - A recovery in the mortgage market is seen as a critical factor for Equifax's growth prospects, although the timing of such a recovery remains uncertain [6]. - Following the downgrade, EFX stock was trading lower by 1.65% at $251.47 [6].