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Dow, S&P 500 Stare Up at Psychologically Significant Levels
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2026-01-20 13:53
Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is approaching the psychological milestone of 50,000, having reached a high just under 300 points below this level last week [2] - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) attempted to breach the 7,000 level but only reached an intraday high of 6,986, indicating a lack of momentum to surpass this threshold [1][12] Small-Cap Performance - The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has shown significant strength, closing above the psychological resistance of 2,500 after previously testing this level multiple times since October [4] - The RUT has outperformed larger-cap indices, with an 8% return in 2026 compared to the SPX's 1.5% return [4] Investor Behavior - There is a potential shift in investment from large-cap technology stocks to smaller-cap names and non-technology stocks within the SPX, which may take months to fully materialize [5] - The increase in short interest on RUT components suggests a contrarian bullish sentiment, as improving market breadth may lead to short covering [7] Technical Analysis - The SPX has not shown significant technical deterioration despite trailing the RUT, as other stocks have compensated for the underperformance of mega-cap names like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple [11] - Key support levels for the SPX are identified at 6,920 and between 6,845 and 6,865, which may provide a buffer against further declines [10][12] Investment Strategy - Consider incorporating small-cap stocks into investment portfolios, alongside focusing on leadership areas within the SPX that are outside the mega-cap technology sector [13]