Core Insights - A key interest rate is rising globally, primarily due to the declining appeal of government bonds for safety and liquidity [3] - The "natural rate of interest" has increased significantly since 2019, rising about one percentage point in the US and other advanced economies [4] - Waning interest in government bonds accounts for up to half of the rise in interest rates, influenced by factors such as increased government debt [5] Interest Rate Dynamics - The post-Covid period has shown a significant rise in both US and global interest rates, contrasting with the previous trend from 1990 to 2019 where demand for safety drove government bond yields down [6] - The concept of the "natural rate of interest," or r-star, is crucial for central bank decisions regarding market interest rates [5] Contributing Factors - Other potential drivers for the rise in interest rates include expectations of AI-driven productivity growth, increasing debt-to-GDP ratios, and higher anticipated military spending [7]

Air Traffic Industry - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will reduce air traffic by 10% across 40 high-volume markets due to the ongoing government shutdown, affecting approximately 3,500 to 4,000 flights daily [3][4] - Staffing shortages among air traffic controllers, who have been working without pay, have led to increased sick calls, prompting the FAA to take action [3][4] - United Airlines will provide rolling updates to its schedule, focusing on regional and domestic mainline flights, and customers can receive refunds if they choose not to fly [5][6] Pharmaceutical Industry - Pfizer has matched Novo Nordisk's bid to acquire weight-loss drug start-up Metsera for up to $10 billion, valuing the company at $86.20 per share [7][8] - A judge denied Pfizer's request to block Novo's bid, allowing the competitive acquisition process to continue [8] Media and Entertainment Industry - Warner Bros. Discovery has set a Christmas deadline to decide on a potential split or sale of the company, with plans to announce decisions by mid to late December [9][10] - The company is evaluating options including splitting into two entities, selling assets, or selling the entire company, following multiple unsolicited interests [9][10] - Warner Bros. has reportedly rejected several bids from Paramount Skydance, with Comcast and Netflix also showing interest in its assets [11][12]

Air Traffic Industry - The FAA will reduce air traffic by 10% across 40 high-volume markets due to staffing shortages caused by the government shutdown, affecting approximately 3,500 to 4,000 flights daily [3][4] - The reduction will primarily impact regional flying and domestic mainline flights that do not travel between hubs, with customers eligible for refunds if they choose not to fly [5][6] Pharmaceutical Industry - Pfizer has matched Novo Nordisk's bid to acquire weight-loss drug start-up Metsera for up to $10 billion, valuing the company at $86.20 per share [7][8] - A judge denied Pfizer's request to block Novo's bid, allowing the competitive acquisition process to continue [8] Media and Entertainment Industry - Warner Bros. Discovery has set a Christmas deadline to decide on a potential split or sale of the company, with plans to announce decisions in mid to late December [9][10] - The company is evaluating multiple unsolicited interests, including offers from Paramount Skydance, Comcast, and Netflix [11][12]

Why is it that you think there is a new structural regime for benchmark rates that's going to make it a lot more difficult to get them lower over the next ten, 20 years. So it's a great question, Lisa. So let's cast our minds back briefly to the early 2000, to Ben Bernanke and to the famous savings glut hypothesis.So back then, the Fed was hiking, but long term Treasury rates weren't going up. And Bernanke said is because there's a glut of global saving. All of this money coming from China and Saudi into th ...