March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Thursday closed down by -0.015 (-0.50%). March nat-gas prices on Thursday gave up an early advance and posted modest losses after weekly nat-gas storage levels fell less than expected.  The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories fell -144 bcf in the week ended February 13, a smaller draw than expectations of -149 bcf. More News from Barchart Nat-gas prices initially moved higher on Thursday amid the outlook for colder US weather, which is expected to boost heating dem ...

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a recovery, closing up by 1.41% on March Nymex, driven by short-covering and expectations of a significant withdrawal from US natural gas storage levels [1] Group 1: Price Movements - March natural gas prices rose after hitting a four-week low, with a consensus expectation of a withdrawal of 257 billion cubic feet (bcf) from US nat-gas inventories, significantly higher than the five-year average of 146 bcf [1] - Initial price movements were downward due to forecasts of above-average temperatures in the US, which are expected to reduce heating demand for natural gas [2] Group 2: Production and Demand - The EIA has increased its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 to 109.97 bcf/day, up from 108.82 bcf/day, indicating a bearish outlook for prices as production approaches record highs [3] - Current US dry gas production stands at 112.8 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, while demand has decreased to 99.0 bcf/day, down 11.7% year-over-year [5] Group 3: Market Influences - A significant spike in natural gas prices occurred on January 28 due to a massive storm that caused Arctic cold weather, leading to production disruptions and increased heating demand [4] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase in US electricity output, which may support natural gas prices, with a rise of 15.42% to 91,459.5 GWh for the week ending February 7 [6]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% this week due to a historic winter storm expected to increase heating demand and deplete inventories [2] - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day, indicating potential support for prices [4] Group 1: Price Movements - February natural gas prices closed up by +0.230 (+4.56%) on Friday [1] - Prices remain below Thursday's 3-year nearest-futures high despite the recent surge [2] Group 2: Weather Impact - An Arctic cold front is expected to affect over 150 million people across 24 states, including Texas, which is home to key gas production sites [2][3] - The cold weather may disrupt gas production as water in pipelines freezes, increasing the risk of temporary outages [3] Group 3: Production and Demand - US dry gas production was reported at 109.6 bcf/day, an increase of +8.7% year-on-year [5] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 126.0 bcf/day, a slight decrease of -0.5% year-on-year [5] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.8 bcf/day, up +5.3% week-on-week [5] Group 4: Inventory Levels - The EIA reported a draw of -120 bcf in natural gas inventories for the week ended January 16, exceeding market expectations [7] - Current inventories are +6.0% year-on-year and +6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [7] - European gas storage was reported to be 48% full, compared to a 5-year average of 62% for this time of year [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% in three days, reaching a three-year high due to forecasts of Arctic weather impacting the US, increasing heating demand and potentially disrupting production [1] - Texas is expected to experience frigid conditions, raising the risk of temporary outages and reduced natural gas production, prompting disaster declarations from the governor [2] Price Movements - February natural gas closed up by +0.170 (+3.49%) on Thursday, continuing a parabolic rally [1] - Weekly EIA report indicated a larger-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories, with a decrease of -120 billion cubic feet (bcf) compared to expectations of -98 bcf [3][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day from 109.11 bcf/day, supporting price stability [4] - Current US dry gas production stands at 110.3 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +9.0% [5] Demand and Inventory Levels - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 112.6 bcf/day, a decrease of -15.0% year-over-year [5] - Natural gas inventories are currently up +6.0% year-over-year and +6.1% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [7]

Core Insights - January Nymex natural gas prices increased by 11.17% to close at +0.443, driven by heavy short-covering and colder weather forecasts for the East Coast [1] - The EIA raised its 2025 US natural gas production forecast to 107.74 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), indicating a bearish outlook for prices due to high production levels [2] - US dry gas production reached 113.9 bcf/day, a 9.6% year-over-year increase, while demand decreased by 12.6% year-over-year to 87.9 bcf/day [3] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is near record highs, with active drilling rigs at a two-year peak of 127 [2][6] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.5 bcf/day, reflecting a 4.9% week-over-week increase [3] - Electricity output in the US rose by 2.3% year-over-year to 85,330 GWh, supporting gas prices [4] Inventory and Storage - Natural gas inventories fell by 167 bcf for the week ending December 12, which was less than the market consensus but above the five-year average [5] - As of December 17, European gas storage was 68% full, below the five-year seasonal average of 78% [5]

Core Insights - Kinder Morgan (KMI) has provided financial guidance for 2026, projecting nearly $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, a 4% increase from 2025, highlighting the resilience of its fee-based business model amid market volatility [1] Financial Performance - The company expects strong fundamentals in its natural gas pipelines segment, which is its primary growth driver. Kinder Morgan plans to invest approximately $3.4 billion in discretionary capital expenditures in the coming year, with internal cash flow significantly funding these projects [2] - Management anticipates a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.8x by the end of 2026, positioning it within the lower half of its long-term target range of 3.5x to 4.5x [2] Shareholder Returns - For income-focused investors, Kinder Morgan plans to increase its annualized dividend to $1.19 per share in 2026, up from $1.17 in 2025. This growth is supported by stable, fee-based cash flows that are less sensitive to commodity price fluctuations [3] Market Demand - The outlook for Kinder Morgan is bolstered by strong demand for natural gas infrastructure, driven by U.S. LNG exports and the increasing energy needs of AI data centers. Natural gas projects are a significant part of the company's backlog, allowing it to benefit from these long-term trends [4] Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in midstream exposure may consider the Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR), which tracks the Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI). As of December 12, companies focused on natural gas pipeline transportation represent 37.9% of the index [5]

Core Insights - Kinder Morgan expects an 8% growth in adjusted profit for 2026 compared to the 2025 forecast, driven by strong natural gas demand [1] Company Summary - Kinder Morgan is a pipeline operator that is projecting significant profit growth due to increasing demand for natural gas [1]

Group 1: Natural Gas Price Movements - January Nymex natural gas prices closed down by -0.081 (-1.65%) after reaching a 3-year nearest-futures high, influenced by warmer weather forecasts reducing heating demand [1] - Negative carryover from a decline in European natural gas prices, which fell to a 1.5-year low, also weighed on US natural gas prices [2] - Initial price rally was driven by forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Great Lakes, but this was reversed by subsequent warmer forecasts [2] Group 2: Production and Demand Dynamics - Higher US natural gas production is a bearish factor, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 112.7 bcf/day (+7.5% year-over-year), while gas demand was at 114.8 bcf/day (+1.5% year-over-year) [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals decreased to 17.6 bcf/day (-2.1% week-over-week) [4] Group 3: Electricity Output and Inventory Levels - US electricity output rose by +5.33% year-over-year to 75,586 GWh for the week ending November 15, supporting gas prices [5] - Natural gas inventories fell by -11 bcf for the week ending November 21, which was a larger draw than market consensus but less than the 5-year average [6] - As of November 21, natural gas inventories were down -0.8% year-over-year and +4.2% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supply levels [6]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US increased by 3.70% on Thursday due to colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand [1] - US dry gas production reached 107.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), marking a 3.7% year-over-year increase, while gas demand rose to 79.2 bcf/day, a 12.1% year-over-year increase [2] - The EIA's report indicated that natural gas inventories rose by 74 billion cubic feet (bcf), aligning with market expectations but exceeding the 5-year average [5] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is currently near record highs, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day [3] - Active natural gas drilling rigs in the US remained stable at 121, just below the 2.25-year high of 124 rigs [6] Electricity Output - US electricity output increased by 1.9% year-over-year to 72,772 gigawatt hours (GWh) for the week ending October 25, contributing positively to gas prices [4] Inventory Levels - As of October 24, natural gas inventories were up 0.5% year-over-year and 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [5] - European gas storage was reported to be 83% full, compared to the 5-year average of 92% for this time of year [5]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a significant decline, closing down by 5.19% due to a larger-than-expected increase in inventories [1] - Cooler weather forecasts for late September are expected to reduce demand for natural gas from electricity providers [2] - Increased U.S. natural gas production has contributed to bearish market conditions, with production forecasts for 2025 being raised [3] Inventory and Production - The EIA reported a rise of 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending September 12, exceeding market expectations of 81 bcf and the five-year average of 74 bcf [1][6] - U.S. dry gas production was recorded at 107.2 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The EIA's updated forecast indicates a 0.2% increase in U.S. natural gas production for 2025, now estimated at 106.63 bcf/day [3] Demand and Market Conditions - Lower-48 state gas demand decreased to 74.0 bcf/day, a decline of 0.8% year-over-year [4] - Electricity output in the U.S. rose by 0.83% year-over-year to 81,346 GWh for the week ending September 13, indicating some support for gas prices [5] - As of September 16, European gas storage was 81% full, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 87% [6]