Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Kinder Morgan (KMI), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage firms and retail investors [1][10]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Kinder Morgan has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00, indicating a "Buy" based on recommendations from 19 brokerage firms, with 9 "Strong Buy" and 1 "Buy" [2][5]. - Strong Buy and Buy recommendations account for 47.4% and 5.3% of all recommendations, respectively [2]. Analysis of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations may not effectively guide investors in selecting stocks with the best price increase potential [5]. - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, issuing five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. - The interests of brokerage firms may not align with those of retail investors, leading to a lack of insight into future stock price movements [7]. Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, showing a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - Unlike ABR, Zacks Rank is a quantitative model and is updated more frequently, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates [9][12]. Current Earnings Estimates for Kinder Morgan - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinder Morgan's current year earnings remains unchanged at $1.26, suggesting steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - The Zacks Rank for Kinder Morgan is 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

KMI's Strategy and Outlook - Hydrocarbon fuels are essential and resilient, with global energy needs expected to expand 30% between 2016 and 2040[15] - Kinder Morgan transports approximately 40% of all natural gas consumed in the U S[46, 49] - KMI aims to increase dividends declared by 60% to $0 80 per share in 2018, maintaining a best-in-class coverage of 2 6x[59] - KMI plans to place $3 2 billion of growth projects into commercial service during 2018, with an investment multiple of approximately 7 0x[59] Financial Performance and Projections - KMI's 2018 budgeted EBITDA is $7 5 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year[59] - KMI's 5-year growth project backlog is expected to generate approximately $1 6 billion of cumulative EBITDA[61] - KMI's 2018 budgeted Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is $4 567 billion, or $2 05 per share, a 2% and 3% increase respectively[238, 276] - KMI's 2018 budgeted growth capital is $2 215 billion, a 26% decrease from the previous year[238, 276] - KMI's 2018 budgeted discretionary free cash flow is $568 million[238] KML and TMEP - KML's 2018 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is C$474 million, a 22% increase from the previous year[210, 323] - The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) is estimated to cost C$7 4 billion and could grow Adjusted EBITDA by C$1 1 billion[222, 216]

Energy Market Outlook - Global energy demand is projected to steadily grow, driven by developing economies like India (32% of incremental demand from 2017 to 2040), China (26%), and Africa (15%) [9, 12] - The U S is the largest oil and gas producer, with production up 23% and 29% respectively in 2017 compared to 2000 and 2010 [16, 17] - U S oil and natural gas production is expected to grow by approximately 33% from 2017 to 2025 [22] Kinder Morgan's Asset and Financial Highlights - Kinder Morgan transports approximately 40% of the natural gas consumed in the U S [26, 39] - The company's 2019 budgeted Segment EBDA is approximately $84 billion, with natural gas pipelines contributing 61%, products pipelines 15%, terminals 14%, CO2 oil production 6%, and CO2 S&T 4% [25] - Kinder Morgan anticipates $5 billion of distributable cash flow (DCF) in 2019, allocating approximately $2 billion for dividends and $3 billion to enhance shareholder value [30] - Approximately 96% of Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted segment cash flow is from take-or-pay and other fee-based contracts or hedged [33] Growth and Capital Allocation - Kinder Morgan has $61 billion of commercially secured capital projects underway, with $43 billion specifically for natural gas projects [44] - The company's capital allocation priorities include maintaining a strong balance sheet with a target Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 45x, dividend growth, and share repurchases [37, 38] - U S natural gas production is projected to grow by over 30 Bcfd, or approximately 37%, through 2030, driven by key basins [39] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is $78 billion, and distributable cash flow (DCF) is $50 billion [73] - The company's 2019 dividend is targeted at $100 per share, with a planned increase to $125 per share in 2020 [38] - Approximately 69% of Kinder Morgan's 2019 budgeted net revenue is generated by end-users [87]

Energy Market Overview - Global energy demand is expected to grow steadily, driven by population growth, urbanization, and economic development, with developing economies like India (32%), China (26%), Africa (15%), and Southeast Asia (15%) leading the increase from 2017 to 2040[9] - The U S is the largest oil and gas producer globally, with production expected to grow by approximately 33% by 2025, positioning it as a key trade partner[11, 15] - By 2025, the U S is projected to supply over 50% of the expected global supply increase and produce nearly 1 out of every 5 barrels of oil and 1 out of every 4 cubic meters of natural gas worldwide[15] Kinder Morgan's Business and Financial Highlights - Kinder Morgan is a leader in energy infrastructure, operating approximately 70,000 miles of natural gas pipelines and transporting about 40% of the natural gas consumed in the U S [20, 49] - The company anticipates approximately $5 billion in distributable cash flow (DCF) for 2019, allocating around $2 billion for dividends and $3 billion for enhancing shareholder value[21] - Kinder Morgan has a market capitalization exceeding $40 billion and boasts investment-grade rated debt, with recent upgrades to BBB / Baa2 by S&P and Moody's[24] - The company offers a current dividend yield of 5% based on a $20 share price, with a planned 25% dividend growth in both 2019 ($1 00/share) and 2020 ($1 25/share)[24, 30] - Kinder Morgan has repurchased approximately $525 million of its shares since December 2017 as part of a $2 billion share buyback program[24] Growth and Capital Projects - The company has $6 1 billion of commercially secured capital projects underway, primarily focused on natural gas opportunities[36] - U S natural gas production is projected to grow by over 30 Bcfd, nearly 40%, by 2030, with over 70% of the forecasted demand growth concentrated in Texas and Louisiana[33, 34] - Kinder Morgan is investing in Permian takeaway projects, including GCX and PHP, with a combined capacity of 4 1 Bcfd, and is in discussions for a potential third pipeline[40, 42] - The company's network is contracted for over 5 7 Bcfd of transport capacity to U S liquefaction facilities under 19-year average term contracts, with approximately $1 billion invested in transportation infrastructure to support LNG exports[49] Financial Performance and Stability - Approximately 90% of Kinder Morgan's earnings are underpinned by take-or-pay or fee-based contracts, ensuring stable cash flows[65] - The company projects approximately $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2019[66] - Kinder Morgan has a long-term target net debt / adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 4 5x, which was reached as of March 31, 2019[30]

Financial Performance and Guidance - The company's 2021 budgeted Adjusted EBITDA is $6.8 billion, a decrease of approximately 2% compared to the 2020 forecast, reflecting headwinds from lower re-contracting rates and crude volumes[15] - 2021 Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is budgeted at $4.4 billion, down approximately 3% from the 2020 forecast, also impacted by higher anticipated sustaining capex[15] - Net income for 2021 is projected to be greater than $2.1 billion, an increase primarily due to asset and goodwill impairments taken during 2020[15] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program, with $575 million already purchased since December 2017[13] - The company maintains a current dividend yield of over 7%, with a Q3 2020 annualized dividend of $1.05 per share[14] Business Overview and Strategy - The company moves approximately 40% of U S natural gas consumption and exports[9] - Approximately 74% of the company's earnings are from take-or-pay or hedged contracts, providing stable cash flows[37, 48] - The company has commercially-secured capital projects underway totaling $2.6 billion as of September 30, 2020[23] - The company's business mix includes 62% natural gas, 15% products, 14% terminals, 6% CO2, and 3% oil & gas production[11] Market and Industry Trends - U S natural gas demand is expected to grow, with over 85% of the forecasted demand growth driven by Texas and Louisiana[18] - Global biofuels demand is expected to increase by approximately 146% from 2019 to 2040[46]

Acquisitions and Divestitures - Kinder Morgan acquired Northeast Transport & Storage Assets for $1225 million[8], with ~41 bcf of FERC-certificated storage capacity and ~3 bcfd of aggregate transportation pipeline capacity[11] - The company acquired Kinetrex Energy for $310 million[12], which includes 1 operational landfill-RNG facility with ~04 bcf capacity and expects 3 landfill-RNG facilities operational by 2022 end with total capacity of 35 bcf[17] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's 2021 forecast EBITDA is $79 billion[23] - The company has a $2 billion share buyback program with over $14 billion of program capacity remaining[23] - The company's 2021 expected Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA is 40x[25] Market Position and Strategy - The company moves ~40% of US natural gas consumption & exports[19] - The company's stable cash flows are with ~72% take-or-pay or hedged earnings[26],[79] - The company has a $13 billion project backlog with ~64% allocated to natural gas projects[25],[83] Energy Transition and Renewables - The company's CO2 transport capacity is ~15 bcfd with ~1500 miles of CO2 pipelines[18] - The company handled nearly 260 mbbld of ethanol, biodiesel, & renewable diesel in 2020[69]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas Production and Pipeline industry is essential for meeting global energy demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption in emerging markets [1] - Despite the shift toward renewables, hydrocarbons remain crucial for transportation, heating, and petrochemical production [1] - Technological advancements like horizontal drilling and enhanced recovery techniques are unlocking new reserves and boosting productivity [1] Pipeline Infrastructure - Pipeline infrastructure is critical for transporting crude oil, natural gas, and refined products efficiently [2] - Stable, fee-based revenue models and long-term contracts provide predictable cash flows for pipeline operators, insulating them from commodity price volatility [2] - The expansion of North American shale production and rising export capacity is expected to increase demand for midstream infrastructure [2] Company Comparisons - Energy Transfer (ET) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) are two of the largest midstream energy companies in North America, operating extensive networks of pipelines and storage facilities [3] - ET offers a diversified midstream infrastructure with stable cash flows and strategic export terminal access, positioning it well for rising U.S. energy production and global demand [4] - KMI has a primarily natural gas-focused midstream network with long-term contracts that provide predictable cash flows, appealing to income-focused investors [5] Earnings Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET's earnings per share (EPS) in 2025 and 2026 has increased by 2.86% and 4.26%, respectively [7] - KMI's 2025 EPS estimate has declined by 0.8%, while its 2026 EPS moved up by 2.26% [9] Dividend Yield - ET offers a dividend yield of 7.2%, significantly higher than KMI's 4.04% and the S&P 500's average of 1.58% [8][12] Valuation Metrics - ET is trading at a forward P/E of 12.54X, which is cheaper than KMI's 22.08X and the S&P 500's 22.43X [8][15] - ET's current return on equity (ROE) is 11.47%, while KMI's ROE is 16.6%, both underperforming the S&P 500's ROE of 17.02% [10] Debt to Capital - ET's debt-to-capital ratio is 56.6%, compared to KMI's 48.42%, both higher than the S&P 500's 38.07% [14] Price Performance - ET's units have gained 4.2% in the past month, outperforming KMI's 1.2% gain and the S&P 500's return of 4.4% [16] Conclusion - Energy Transfer is currently favored over Kinder Morgan due to rising earnings estimates, higher dividend yield, better return on equity, and cheaper valuation [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend-paying stocks are generally considered lower-risk investments compared to non-payers, as they generate sufficient cash to fund growth and return excess to shareholders through dividends [1] Group 1: Black Hills (BKH) - Black Hills operates as a regulated utility with a monopoly on natural gas distribution and electricity in several states, benefiting from government regulation [5][6] - The company has a growing customer base, expanding at twice the rate of the U.S. population, and has a history of increasing dividends for over five decades, achieving Dividend King status [7] - Expected earnings growth of 4% to 6% and a dividend yield of 4.8% make Black Hills an attractive investment opportunity [8] Group 2: Kinder Morgan (KMI) - Kinder Morgan is one of the largest energy infrastructure platforms in the U.S., with stable cash flows supported by take-or-pay contracts that account for 64% of annual cash flows [9][10] - The company anticipates cash flow growth to $5.9 billion this year, sufficient to cover its $2.6 billion dividend outlay and fund capital expenditures with excess free cash flow [11][12] - With $8.8 billion in growth capital projects, primarily in natural gas pipelines, Kinder Morgan has a strong foundation for future dividend increases, having raised its payout for eight consecutive years [13] Group 3: American States Water (AWR) - American States Water is a major water utility serving 1 million consumers across nine states, with a long history of dividend payments since 1931 and 70 consecutive years of increases, making it a top Dividend King [15] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in dividend growth over the past five years and aims for over 7% in the long term, supported by planned capital expenditures [16] - The stable cash flows and growth potential position American States Water as one of the safest and most reliable dividend stocks available, with a current yield of 2.4% [17]

Key Takeaways Enbridge Inc. (ENB) and Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) are two midstream energy giants. Given the very nature of their business model, where shippers utilize their oil and gas storage and transportation assets, the companies are less vulnerable to volatility in commodity prices. Over the past year, ENB has risen 35.7%, outperforming the industry's 35.4% growth but trailing KMI's impressive 51.5% surge. However, this outperformance alone doesn't necessarily put Kinder Morgan in a stronger position th ...

Kinder Morgan (KMI) closed the latest trading day at $27.53, indicating a -2.17% change from the previous session's end. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.09%.Shares of the oil and natural gas pipeline and storage company witnessed a gain of 3.04% over the previous month, trailing the performance of the Oils-Energy sector with its gain of 5.47% and the S&P 500's gain of 7.21%.The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Kinder Morgan in its forthcoming ...