Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) to address ongoing requests for such comparisons [1][2] - The analysis is divided into two parts, with Part 1 focusing on RITM's recent results and metrics, while Part 2 emphasizes dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [2][3] Group 1: RITM's Financial Metrics - RITM's book value as of September 30, 2025, is compared to its 17 mREIT peers, providing insights into its financial standing [2] - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per common share for Q3 2025, maintaining the same rate as the previous quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month (TTM) dividend yield of 8.26% [16][27] - The annual forward yield based on RITM's stock price as of September 19, 2025, is also 8.26%, while the yield based on the company's book value is 7.79% [16] Group 2: Dividend Sustainability Analysis - The article discusses RITM's dividend sustainability, indicating a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q1 and Q2 2026 [29] - RITM's quarterly core earnings available to common shareholders for Q3 2025 were reported at $296.9 million, translating to a core earnings per share of $0.54, which is above the dividend rate [23][21] - The dividend distribution payout ratios for RITM have been attractive, with ratios of 48%, 46%, and 47% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025, respectively [23] Group 3: Comparative Analysis with Peers - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield percentages are notably below average when compared to its peer PMT, indicating a lower risk profile [16][27] - The article emphasizes that RITM has maintained a consistent dividend history, increasing its dividend from $0.35 in Q3 2014 to $0.25 since Q3 2021, contrasting with many peers that have reduced dividends [15][13] - The analysis includes a comparison of RITM's leverage ratio, which is lower than that of PMT, suggesting a more conservative approach to risk management [17] Group 4: Future Projections and Recommendations - The projected adjusted core earnings for Q4 2025 are expected to improve compared to Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for RITM's financial performance [30] - The current price target for RITM is approximately $14.60 per share, with recommendations varying from SELL at a premium to BUY at a discount to the projected book value [34][32] - The article concludes that RITM is currently undervalued, with a strong buy recommendation based on its financial metrics and market conditions [33]

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. is a publicly traded mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) known for its attractive long-term returns and high dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors [1][2] Dividend Policy - AGNC has a monthly dividend yield of 14.2%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.7%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [2] - The company has a record of consistent dividend payments, as U.S. law mandates REITs to distribute 90% of their annual taxable income as dividends [2] Share Repurchase Plan - In October 2024, AGNC's board terminated its existing stock repurchase plan and authorized a new plan to repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock through December 31, 2026 [4] - The buyback strategy aims to enhance shareholder value by repurchasing shares when the price is below the estimated tangible net book value per share [4] Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, AGNC's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $7.2 billion, an increase from $6.4 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a sustainable capital distribution plan [5] - The company benefits from relatively lower mortgage rates, which may ease operational and funding pressures, potentially widening net interest spreads and boosting profitability [6] Competitive Landscape - AGNC competes with peers like Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) in maintaining shareholder returns through dividends [7] - Annaly has a dividend yield of 13.4% and a strong liquidity position with $8.8 billion in total assets, while Arbor Realty has a lower yield of 12.6% and a weaker liquidity position [8][10] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, AGNC shares have increased by 21.9%, outperforming the industry average rise of 8.1% [11] - AGNC trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.2X, above the industry average of 1X, indicating a premium valuation [15]

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) shares have increased by 20.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 7.1% and its peers AGNC Investment (11.1% growth) and Arbor Realty Trust (1.3% decline) [1] Performance Drivers - Strategic Positioning: Annaly's disciplined diversification across the mortgage finance landscape, with a $89.5 billion investment portfolio as of June 30, 2025, primarily in $79.5 billion of highly liquid Agency MBS, enhances its risk-adjusted returns [5][6] - Adaptability: The company's structure allows it to adjust to market changes, with MSRs gaining value in rising interest rate environments, offsetting declines in agency MBS valuations [6][7] - Mortgage Rate Impact: Declining mortgage rates are improving housing affordability, increasing loan demand, and boosting net interest income (NII) to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, up from $47.1 million a year ago [8][9] Financial Position - Strong Liquidity: As of June 30, 2025, Annaly had $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS, supporting its liquidity during adverse market conditions [11] - Dividend Yield: The company maintains a monthly dividend payout with a yield of 13.2% and a payout ratio of 99% [11] - Share Repurchase Plan: Annaly has a $1.5 billion share repurchase plan, which has not yet been utilized, but its liquidity position supports future capital distributions [13] Investment Considerations - Income Opportunity: Annaly is positioned as an attractive option for income-focused investors due to its high dividend yield and diversified portfolio that mitigates interest rate volatility [14] - Valuation Concerns: The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible (P/TB) multiple of 1.1X, higher than the industry average of 1.07X, suggesting a premium valuation [15]

Core Viewpoint - PennyMac Mortgage Trust (PMT) experienced an underperforming quarter, with results slightly below expectations, primarily due to higher borrowing costs impacting profits. The company remains slightly undervalued, and the dividend remains unchanged [1][11]. Performance Summary - PMT recorded a minor book value (BV) decrease compared to projections, which anticipated a relatively unchanged BV. The accuracy of BV projections is challenging due to the complexity of PMT's business model and sector volatility [2][10]. - Correspondent loan acquisitions increased significantly in Q2 2025, with a volume of $29.8 billion, representing a 30% increase from Q1 2025, surpassing the expected 25% increase. However, this growth came with a decline in gross origination spread margins [3][10]. - The company's Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) sub-portfolio showed stable net valuation fluctuations, with delinquencies remaining under 1.5%, indicating subdued credit risk [4][10]. - The Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) sub-portfolio slightly underperformed expectations due to higher prepayment speeds, with actual amortization of $98 million compared to the projected $90 million [5][10]. - PMT's agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and residential whole loans sub-portfolios slightly underperformed expectations, primarily due to a reduction in the fixed-rate agency MBS sub-portfolio size by $115 million [6][10]. - The hedging and derivative instruments sub-portfolio also slightly underperformed expectations, with no notable surprises in underlying changes during Q2 2025 [7][10]. - The income tax provision recorded a larger-than-anticipated variance due to a non-recurring tax expense of $14 million, which was difficult to project [8][10]. Financial Metrics - PMT reported a minor increase in interest income but also a modest increase in interest expense, leading to a slight worsening in net interest spreads, which underperformed expectations by $0.03 per common share [9][10]. - The actual BV at the end of Q2 2025 was $15.00, reflecting a 2.6% miss compared to projections [14][10]. - PMT's forward guidance indicates adjusted diluted earnings of $0.38 per common share, a $0.03 increase from Q1 2025, suggesting potential for improved returns in the future [18][10]. Valuation and Recommendations - PMT is currently deemed slightly undervalued, with a dividend range for Q3 2025 expected to remain unchanged at $0.35 - $0.40 per common share [19][10]. - The risk/performance rating for PMT remains at 3.5, indicating a stable outlook in the current environment [12][16].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's journey into investing, starting in high school in 2011, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-standing interest in markets and the economy [1] - The author has recently adopted a strategy that combines long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, emphasizing a fundamental long-term investment approach [1] - The author primarily covers REITs and financials on Seeking Alpha, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macro trade ideas [1]