Core Viewpoint - The electric motorcycle (e-motorcycle) market is experiencing a dual increase in inventory and exports for 2025, influenced by new national standards and the ban on fuel motorcycles, leading to a complex market dynamic [1][2]. Market Overview - In 2025, the total sales of fuel and electric motorcycles are projected to be approximately 21.97 million units, with exports accounting for about 13.37 million units and domestic sales around 8.6 million units, indicating that exports represent 60% of total sales, surpassing domestic sales [2]. - Domestic sales of motorcycles are expected to decline by 3.45% year-on-year, while exports are anticipated to grow by 21%, highlighting the significance of overseas markets amid domestic restrictions [3]. Electric Motorcycle Performance - The sales of electric motorcycles in 2025 are estimated at 3.5062 million units, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of only 1.14%, with a penetration rate of approximately 16% for new energy vehicles [4]. - Despite the sluggish growth in sales, production of electric motorcycles reached 3.6118 million units in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.03%, with December alone seeing a production of 339,100 units, a month-on-month increase of 7% [4]. Inventory and Production Dynamics - The production of electric motorcycles exceeding sales is attributed to manufacturers' strategies to stockpile inventory in response to uncertainties brought by new national standards [5][6]. - The implementation of the new standards has led to a resurgence of lead-acid motorcycles, with market share rebounding to 77% in Q3 and exceeding 90% in Q4 [12]. Export Trends - The export growth of electric motorcycles is notable, with an increase of 18.1% in 2025, indicating a trend where domestic brands are thriving in international markets [4][18]. - Southeast Asia is identified as a significant market for electric motorcycles, driven by a large "oil-to-electric" transition potential, although initial purchase costs remain a barrier compared to fuel motorcycles [19]. Competitive Landscape - The electric motorcycle market is characterized by a diverse range of players, including established brands and new entrants, with a focus on high-performance lithium batteries that meet the demands for power and range [14][15]. - Companies like Yadea, Aima, and Niu are actively expanding their presence in the European market, targeting both budget-conscious consumers and high-end segments [23]. Future Outlook - The evolving landscape of electric motorcycles, influenced by regulatory changes and market dynamics, suggests that manufacturers will need to adapt strategies to maintain competitiveness and capitalize on export opportunities [20][22].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released the third batch of companies that meet the "Electric Bicycle Industry Normative Conditions," with five companies from Jiangsu province making the list, leading the nation in total entries [2][4] - The "white list" signifies quality assurance for consumers, as listed companies undergo rigorous evaluation processes, ensuring their products meet national standards [2] - The implementation of the new national standard and the "old-for-new" policy is expected to enhance industry concentration and stimulate demand for "white list" companies [2][4] Group 1: Industry Overview - A total of 13 companies are included in the third batch of the "white list," with six brands, including Ninebot, Niu, and JinJian, making their debut on the list [4] - The cumulative total of the three batches of the "white list" now includes 19 brands and 44 factories, with Yadea and Aima leading with six factories each [4] - The new national standard, effective from September 1, 2025, mandates strict speed limit features for new electric bicycles, significantly impacting market dynamics [4] Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the new national standard, there has been a surge in sales for existing electric bicycle models, indicating a market shift as older models are being purchased rapidly [4] - The "white list" companies are positioned to gain a competitive advantage during this market reshuffle, as new models have yet to be released [4]