New market cycle
Search documents
ETF Edge on signals of a new market cycle and top ideas for 2026
Youtube· 2025-11-25 18:56
Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by a transition into a new cycle, driven by recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a shift in market leadership towards emerging markets and real assets, suggesting a need for portfolio evolution away from large-cap tech stocks [1][2]. ETF Market Trends - The ETF industry has experienced record inflows, with $1.2 trillion in inflows this year, while mutual funds have seen $1 trillion in outflows, indicating a significant shift in investor preference towards ETFs [1][2]. - Over 900 new ETFs have been launched this year, reflecting ongoing innovation and growth within the ETF space [1]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios by including asset classes and sectors that benefit from higher inflation, such as gold, which is up 54% year-to-date, and emerging markets, which are also up 27% [1][2]. - Leveraged ETFs are gaining popularity, but caution is advised due to their complexity and the high costs associated with accessing leverage, which can lead to underperformance compared to benchmarks [1][2]. Market Performance Insights - The S&P 500 has been outperformed by sectors such as industrials and banks, which have seen gains of 16% and 19% respectively, compared to the S&P's 12% increase [1]. - The weakening dollar has been identified as a catalyst for non-U.S. markets outperforming the U.S., with historical trends showing that a weaker dollar typically benefits gold and emerging markets [2]. Future Outlook - The ETF industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with predictions of more crypto-related ETF launches and innovations in share class structures that could further drive flows from mutual funds to ETFs [9][12]. - The complexity of the ETF market is increasing, necessitating more due diligence from investors as new products are introduced [11].