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长城汽车:Possible positive surprise from new platform-20260330
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-03-30 02:24
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Great Wall Motor with a target price of HK$19.00 for H-shares and RMB26.00 for A-shares, reflecting an upside of 52.2% and 24.5% respectively from current prices [3][8] Core Insights - Great Wall Motor's 4Q25 revenue reached an all-time high of RMB69 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase, surpassing previous forecasts by 9% [8] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for FY25 was reported at 18.0%, showing resilience despite a year-over-year decline of 1.5 percentage points due to increased competition [8] - The company is optimistic about its new platform, Guiyuan, which allows for diverse powertrains and a high parts sharing ratio, expected to enhance competitiveness and pricing [8] - The product mix is improving, with a focus on the Wey brand and rising exports, which are projected to sustain GPM and average selling prices [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 are set at RMB222.8 billion, with a growth forecast of 10.2% year-over-year, and expected to rise to RMB254.5 billion in FY26 [2][10] - Net profit for FY25 is estimated at RMB9.87 billion, reflecting a decline of 22.3% year-over-year, but is expected to rebound to RMB11.77 billion in FY26, a growth of 19.3% [2][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 is projected at RMB1.15, with a P/E ratio of 9.5x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [2][10] Sales and Volume Forecast - The sales volume for the Wey brand is revised upwards by 20,000 units to 200,000 units for FY26, doubling from FY25 [8] - Total sales volume for Great Wall Motor is maintained at 1.49 million units for FY26, with export volumes expected to increase by 3% to 620,000 units [8] Margin and Profitability - The GPM is expected to widen to 18.1% in FY26, supported by a 1% increase in average selling price to RMB171,000 [8] - The operating profit margin for FY25 is projected at 5.2%, with expectations of maintaining similar margins in FY26 [10][11]