Market Overview - Major market indexes are mixed in pre-market trading, with the Dow down 46 points, S&P 500 up 14 points, Nasdaq up 144 points, and Russell 2000 up 1 point [1] - Over the past month, the Dow and S&P 500 have increased by 1.2% and 0.55% respectively, while the Nasdaq has decreased by 0.7% and Russell 2000 is nearly flat at -0.02% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Q4 earnings season is set to begin next week with major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, along with early reporters such as Delta Air Lines [2] - These earnings reports will provide insights into the performance of the U.S. economy in the final quarter of 2025 [2] Employment Data - The first full week of the month is referred to as "Jobs Week," which will include monthly employment data from both private and overall non-farm sectors [3] - ADP's private-sector payrolls reported a loss of 32,000 jobs last month, the worst figure in nearly three years, with forecasts predicting a gain of 45,000 jobs for December [4][3] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be released, showing a recovery in job openings from summer lows, with October's openings at 7.67 million [5] - Weekly Jobless Claims report indicates a significant drop to 199,000, marking only the second time in two years that claims fell below 200,000 [6] - Continuing Claims have decreased to below 1.9 million, suggesting a perceived strength in the labor market despite notable layoffs at companies like Amazon and Nestlé [7] Employment Situation Report - The Employment Situation report on Friday is expected to show an unemployment rate of 4.7%, the highest since September 2021, with non-farm payrolls projected to increase by 54,000 for December [9][10] - A positive surprise in the employment data could be beneficial for the market, while a disappointing report may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [10] Commodity Market - Oil prices are rising, along with gold and silver, as a hedge against risks to stock market equities, amid geopolitical tensions such as the U.S. invasion of Venezuela [11] - Bond yields remain stable, with the 10-year yield currently below 4.18% [11] Manufacturing Data - ISM Manufacturing numbers for December are expected to rise by 10 basis points to 48.3%, still indicating contraction as it remains below the 50 level [12] - ISM Services data is anticipated to reach 52.1%, reflecting growth in that sector [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 209,000 non-farm jobs in July, exceeding expectations of 180,000, marking the ninth consecutive month of better-than-expected job growth [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.6% to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021 [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 4.0% year-on-year, the lowest since mid-2021, down from 4.1% [1] Group 2 - Job losses were noted in retail (-9,000) and transportation and warehousing (-11,000), indicating companies are cutting non-essential positions [1] - The unemployment rate of 4.1% is close to the Federal Reserve's tolerance limit, historically indicating a potential policy shift when exceeding 4% [1] - The wage-inflation spiral is loosening, with hourly wage growth narrowing for four consecutive quarters, easing upward price pressures [1] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest drop in a month, as expectations for interest rate cuts increased [1] - Spot gold surged by 1.2%, reaching $2,370, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped by 15 basis points, marking the best single-day performance in three months [1] Group 4 - The market is now pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 68% before the data release [1] - CME interest rate futures indicate the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, in September and December [1] - The narrowing of high-yield bond spreads suggests a potential decrease in borrowing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to increase holdings in medium to long-term U.S. Treasuries and allocate to gold ETFs while remaining cautious on cyclical stocks [1]