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Is Okta's 15% Price Drop A Buying Opportunity?
Forbesยท 2025-06-05 11:35
Core Insights - Okta, a leading cybersecurity firm specializing in identity and access management, has seen a stock decrease of approximately 10% over the last month despite reporting strong first-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations [2][3] - The company's stock has increased nearly 30% year-to-date, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors [2] Financial Performance - In Q1, Okta's revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $688 million, surpassing the forecast of $678 million to $680 million [3] - Subscription revenue also rose 12% to $673 million, while adjusted EPS increased 24% year-over-year to $0.86 [3] - The company reported positive free cash flow of $238 million for the quarter, marking an 11% year-over-year growth [3] - The net dollar retention rate was 106%, down from 111% a year prior [3] Growth Forecast - Okta has maintained its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast of $2.85 billion to $2.86 billion, indicating a growth of 9-10% [4] - For Q2, the company projects revenue growth of 10% to $710-$712 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.83-$0.84 [4] Market Outlook - The overall cybersecurity market is expected to grow significantly, with investments projected to exceed $298 billion annually by 2028 [5] - Okta's identity management platform is crucial for securing access across various applications, especially as companies adopt cloud-based solutions [5] - Management has noted strong demand for new offerings, such as Identity Governance and Privileged Access [5] Valuation Analysis - Okta has a market capitalization of $17 billion and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 6x based on fiscal 2026 revenue estimates, which is reasonable compared to other cybersecurity stocks [6] - However, trading at 25 times its trailing free cash flow, Okta stock appears somewhat expensive given its low-teens revenue and free cash flow growth [6]