Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The industry assesses that the destruction of Iranian nuclear sites may not be complete, requiring further verification [2][3] - The industry acknowledges the US administration's stated objective is to focus on Iran's nuclear capabilities, not regime change, but recognizes regime change could still occur [4] - The industry views regime change in Iran as a potential solution to prevent the pursuit of nuclear weapons [5] - The industry anticipates potential Iranian retaliation against various targets, including Israel, Gulf Arab states, and US interests [7][8] - The industry believes the US should defend Gulf Arab states, Jordan, and Egypt against Iranian threats [9] Military and Strategic Considerations - The industry notes Iran's military capabilities may be diminished compared to October 6, 2023, due to actions by Israel and the weakening of its proxies [9] - The industry believes Iran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty would be meaningless, as they have already been violating it [11] - The industry recognizes the potential for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, but believes the US has increased naval assets in the region to address this threat [12][13] - The industry anticipates a strong US response, potentially including strikes against the Iranian navy and other targets inside Iran, if Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz [14] Nuclear Proliferation Concerns - The industry expresses concern that even if Iran's nuclear capabilities are diminished in the short term, Iran's exit from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty could pose a greater danger in the long term [10]

to agree to a cease fire and would offer flexibility in nuclear negotiations in return. Joining us now is Wendy Sherman, former deputy secretary of state. Wendy also led the U.S. Negotiating team from 2011 to 2015 on an agreement that limited Iran's nuclear activity. Wendy, it's great to have you on the show.First of all, I mean, how much credence do you put in this reporting. Does it sound realistic that Iran would be trying to push the U.S. To come to the table at this point. >> Well, I would not be surpr ...

Geopolitical Landscape & Nuclear Proliferation - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated, potentially pushing Iran to pursue nuclear weapons more aggressively for deterrence against future Israeli military actions [5][6] - Iran was reportedly weeks away from having enough uranium to potentially develop a nuclear bomb, and the Israeli attack may have delayed this [3] - The IAEA has reported that Iran is not complying with the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, raising concerns about its nuclear program [2][5] Potential Military Actions & US Involvement - A crippling strike on Iran's Fordo facility, a key element in Iran's ability to quickly develop a nuclear weapon, would likely require direct US military assistance [6][7] - Israel might attempt to cripple Fordo through alternative means, such as collapsing the entrance or disrupting its power supply [7][8] - The US administration faces a difficult decision on whether to directly intervene to take out Fordo, to prevent Iran from rapidly developing a nuclear weapon [10] Regional Implications & Potential Retaliation - If the US becomes directly involved, Iran is expected to retaliate with all available means, potentially escalating the conflict regionally [12] - Potential Iranian responses could include Houthi involvement, targeting American personnel or bases, attacking Gulf oil infrastructure, or attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz [13]