Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment rating for the oil industry, with Brent/WTI oil price forecasts set at $60/$56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, which are below the forwards by $4 and $8 respectively [4][8][32]. Core Insights - The price drag from higher Iran supply assumptions and slightly higher than expected OECD commercial stocks offsets the price boost from higher GDP forecasts [3][4]. - Global oil demand growth forecasts for Q4-Q4 have been raised by 0.3mb/d and 0.1mb/d for 2025 and 2026, now projected at 0.6mb/d and 0.4mb/d respectively [5][6]. - The report nudges up Iran's crude supply expectations for 2025H2-2026 to 3.6mb/d, reflecting potential progress on a US-Iran nuclear deal, although the outlook remains uncertain [12][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecasts - The report maintains Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/$56 for 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, indicating a cautious outlook due to supply factors [4][8][32]. - The price forecasts have been adjusted slightly upward for May, June, and July 2025 due to a faster-than-expected recovery in risk premiums following the US-China trade deal [6]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand growth is expected to be sluggish, with a forecast of 0.6mb/d in 2025 and 0.4mb/d in 2026, driven by lower tariffs and higher GDP [5][10]. - The report anticipates surpluses of 1.0mb/d and 1.5mb/d in 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a potential imbalance in the oil market [30]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations and the potential impact on Iran's crude supply, which could increase if a nuclear deal is reached [12][13]. - Venezuela's supply forecast has also been nudged up based on higher-than-expected realized production [16]. Economic Scenarios - The report outlines various scenarios for oil prices, indicating that downside risks remain significant due to high spare capacity and potential global economic slowdowns [19][20]. - In a scenario of a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC cuts, Brent prices could fall to $40 by late 2026 [23][21].