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东方电缆 - 2025 年三季度因重点海外项目收入确认加速,净利润超预期
2025-10-27 12:06
Summary of Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co Ltd (603606.SS) - **Industry**: China Utilities - **Market Cap**: Rmb45,527 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb66.20 (as of October 24, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb69.63, indicating a 5% upside potential Key Financial Highlights - **9M25 Net Profit**: Rmb914 million, down 1.9% YoY - **9M25 Revenue**: Rmb7.5 billion, up 11.9% YoY - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb441 million, up 53.1% YoY and 129.6% QoQ - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: - 3Q25: 22.6%, up 0.9 percentage points YoY and 6.3 percentage points QoQ - Estimated GPM for submarine and high-voltage cables: 34-35% vs. 25% in 1H25 - **Order Backlog**: Rmb19.6 billion as of October 23, 2025, including: - Rmb11.7 billion in submarine and high-voltage cables - Rmb3.9 billion in marine engineering - Rmb3.9 billion in medium- and low-voltage land cables Revenue Breakdown - **Submarine and High-Voltage Cables**: - Revenue: Rmb1,592 million in 3Q25, up 109.4% QoQ - Key projects contributing to revenue: Qingzhou 5 and 7, Fanshi 1 and 2 in Guangdong - **Marine Equipment and Engineering**: Revenue decreased to Rmb78 million, down 63.2% QoQ - **Medium/Low Voltage Land Cables**: Revenue: Rmb1,343 million, up 0.5% QoQ with ~10% GPM Strategic Insights - The significant increase in net profit for 3Q25 is attributed to accelerated revenue recognition from high-margin offshore projects in Guangdong - The company has achieved 86% of the full-year earnings forecast for FY25, indicating potential upside risk to the forecast Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Discounted cash flow analysis with a WACC of 7.4% - **Risks to Upside**: - Increased offshore wind power installations in China - Higher average selling prices (ASPs) for submarine cables - Improved gross profit margins for both submarine and land cables - **Risks to Downside**: - Decrease in offshore wind power installations - Decline in ASPs for submarine cables - Unexpected increases in raw material costs Analyst Ratings - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Industry View**: Attractive Conclusion Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables has demonstrated strong financial performance in 3Q25, driven by key offshore projects and a substantial order backlog. The company is well-positioned for future growth, although it faces potential risks related to market conditions and raw material costs. The current stock rating reflects a positive outlook for the company within the utilities sector in China.