Core Insights - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) anticipates 2026 to be the low point of the oil cycle, with two potential paths: a gradual price recovery or a sharper decline leading to the same outcome [1][4] - The company is shifting capital allocation from oil to natural gas, aiming to preserve higher-value barrels for a better pricing environment [2][7] - Despite a weaker commodity backdrop, NOG's 2025 results showed resilience, with Adjusted EBITDA increasing by 1% year-over-year, even as average oil prices fell by approximately 14% [3][4] Financial Performance - Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $367 million, with full-year Adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.63 billion; full-year free cash flow was $424 million [5][28] - The company reported a 2% year-over-year reduction in share count and modest net debt reduction, despite over $340 million in acquisitions during the year [3][4] - Q4 average daily production was 140,000 Boe/d, up 7% sequentially and 6% year-over-year, with full-year production averaging 135,000 Boe/d, a 9% increase from 2024 [19][20] Operational Highlights - NOG expanded its Appalachia footprint significantly with the Utica acquisition, increasing net acres by approximately 45% to around 90,000 [6][13] - Q4 gas production volumes rose by 24% year-over-year, marking a third consecutive quarter of record gas volumes [6][20] - The company added 24.2 net wells in Q4 and ended the year with 45.6 net wells in process, with a notable focus on the Permian and Appalachia regions [10][11] Strategic Initiatives - Management emphasized a strategic shift towards drill-ready projects and maintaining a sustainable dividend, designed for a significantly weaker environment [7][8] - NOG is actively engaged in business development, working on its fifth major joint acquisition and focusing on smaller acquisitions and joint development opportunities [15][16] - The company is providing two guidance ranges for 2026 due to limited visibility on commodity prices and operator behavior, indicating a flexible approach to capital allocation [25][26]