Geopolitical Landscape & Negotiations - A summit between President Trump and Russia's President Putin is tentatively scheduled for the end of next week [1] - The UAE is potentially the front runner to host US-Russia talks [2] - The negotiations may exclude Ukraine (Zalinsky) and potentially the Europeans [4] Sanctions & Energy Policy - Anticipation exists that US-Russia talks could lead to sanctions relief, but European authority over energy sanctions is crucial [5] - Europe's commitment to halt Russian oil imports by summer 2022 led to US concerns about market disruption [6] - The US implemented price caps to facilitate the movement of Russian oil to countries like India [7] - India's Russian oil imports have increased by approximately 1 million barrels per day since the start of the war [8] - The US is considering higher tariffs on India if it continues to import Russian oil, creating a point of contention [9] - The Europeans have implemented the most significant energy sanctions [11] Trade Deals & Market Impact - A trade deal with Europe includes $750 billion of US energy purchases over three years, potentially displacing Russian energy [11] - Crude prices are rangebound and down due to anticipation of talks rather than immediate tariff announcements [9][10]

Geopolitical Implications - Russia's oil imports are a point of irritation in India-US relations [1]

Economic Outlook - Falling oil prices improve the outlook for the Philippine economy [1] - The Philippine economy is heavily reliant on oil imports [1] Currency Performance - The worst may be over for the Philippine peso [1]