So, what does the situation in Venezuela mean for the energy market. Let's ask top oil analyst Paul Seni, uh, president of Seni Research. Paul, it's good to see you.And how are you thinking about the events uh, in Venezuela, Cuba, as it relates to the oil price. >> Yeah, I think the market perceives it to be potentially bearish, obviously, if you were to change regime and then open up. But, of course, it's it's going to be a knee-jerk reaction.the reality of the barrels coming back to the market will will l ...

Market Overview - WTI crude oil price approached $79 per barrel, and Brent crude even exceeded $80 per barrel overnight [1] - Over the past month, WTI crude oil prices have increased by 20%, reflecting a significant premium [2] - Industry analysis suggests oil prices could be $5 to $10 per barrel higher, even without geopolitical risks, based on current fundamentals [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - US oil supply is beginning to decline, evidenced by a surprise 11 to 12 million barrel decrease in weekly oil inventories reported by the EIA [4] - Lower oil prices have led to a reduction in supply, which is expected to eventually drive prices higher due to high shale decline rates [6][7] - Reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, even without a complete closure, could significantly limit supply and increase prices [8] Geopolitical Risks - Despite the unlikelihood of Iran directly closing the Strait of Hormuz, the potential for economic warfare through terror proxies remains a concern [9][11] - Attacks on ships by groups like the Houthis have previously led to substantial declines in shipping activity, suggesting a similar scenario could impact traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [12] - The Iranian regime, facing internal pressure and reduced conventional warfare capabilities, may resort to economic warfare, potentially impacting oil supply [10][11]