Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Oil Market - **Source**: EIA's December STEO report Core Insights 1. **Market Balance**: The EIA's December STEO indicates a bearish outlook, projecting a looser market balance in 2025 by 0.4 million barrels per day (Mb/d) to 2.2 Mb/d, due to downward revisions in demand and increased supply [2] 2. **Price Forecast**: Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $55 per barrel in Q1 2026, slightly lower than the previous forecast of $54, with prices expected to remain near this level throughout 2026 [2] 3. **Demand Growth**: Demand growth forecasts for 2025 have been revised up by 85,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 1.1 Mb/d, primarily due to a lower base in 2024, with total demand for 2025 revised down by 203 kb/d to 103.9 Mb/d [3] 4. **Non-OPEC Supply Growth**: Non-OPEC supply growth projections for 2025 have been increased by 20 kb/d to 1.9 Mb/d, driven by growth in Mexico and the US, although 2026 growth has been revised down by 33 kb/d to 1.0 Mb/d [4] 5. **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ crude output fell by 174 kb/d month-over-month to an average of 37.5 Mb/d in November, with a planned adjustment of -99 kb/d. Russia and Saudi Arabia led the declines [5] Additional Important Information 1. **US Crude Supply**: US crude supply is projected to rise by 370 kb/d in 2025 to 13.6 Mb/d, before a slight decline to 13.5 Mb/d in 2026. Recent drilling activity has shown a decrease in wells drilled and DUCs [4] 2. **Market Volatility**: Oil prices are noted to be highly unpredictable due to various political, geological, and economic factors, leading to significant volatility in the short, medium, and long term [7] 3. **Analyst Team**: The report was prepared by a team of analysts from UBS, including Nayoung Kim, Henri Patricot, and Joshua Stone, indicating a collaborative effort in the analysis [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the oil market's current state, future projections, and underlying factors influencing these trends.

Group 1 - Kuwait's crude oil production capacity has reached 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest level in over a decade [1] - The country plans to increase its oil production to 2.56 million barrels per day from October under the OPEC+ agreement [2] - OPEC+ members agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, continuing a strategy of gradually boosting output [2] Group 2 - OPEC+ decisions are flexible and can be paused or reversed based on market developments, allowing for a swift response to changing conditions [3] - Minister Al-Roumi expressed optimism about achieving market balance, noting positive impacts from OPEC+'s April decision to enhance output [4] - The International Energy Agency anticipates global oil consumption growth of 740,000 barrels per day in 2025 and an additional 700,000 barrels per day next year [4] Group 3 - Global oil demand is recovering, with crude inventories dropping below the five-year average [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Oil Market - **Key Organization**: OPEC Core Insights 1. **OPEC's Production Outlook**: OPEC's September Monthly Oil Market Report maintains the oil market balance for 2025 and 2026, projecting a steady call on OPEC+ crude production at 0.4 million barrels per day (Mb/d) for 2025 and 0.6 Mb/d for 2026 [2][3][4] 2. **Demand Growth Forecasts**: OPEC's demand growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.3 Mb/d for 2025 and 1.4 Mb/d for 2026, with OECD demand expected to expand by 0.1 Mb/d in 2025 and 0.2 Mb/d in 2026 [3] 3. **Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth**: The non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast is unchanged at 0.8 Mb/d for 2025 and 0.6 Mb/d for 2026, with US liquid growth outlooks also remaining steady at 0.3 Mb/d for 2025 and 0.1 Mb/d for 2026 [4] 4. **OPEC+ Output Changes**: In August, crude output from OPEC-9 and its partners increased by 529 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) month-over-month to an average of 36.95 Mb/d, with a notable rise from Saudi Arabia (+259 kb/d) and Iraq (+122 kb/d) [5] Additional Important Information 1. **Volatility of Oil Prices**: Historical data indicates that oil prices are consistently unpredictable due to various political, geological, and economic factors, leading to high volatility in the short, medium, and long term [7] 2. **Analyst Team**: The report was prepared by a team of analysts from UBS, including Nayoung Kim, Henri Patricot, and Joshua Stone, indicating a collaborative effort in the analysis [6] 3. **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to consider the report as one of several factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the potential for conflicts of interest within UBS [6][9] This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call, focusing on the oil market's current state and future projections as outlined by OPEC.