October 17, 2025 04:20 PM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe M Idea A Puzzle at the Heart of the Oil Market Across a broad range of data providers, estimates of OPEC production have diverged sharply this year. Our suspicion, however, is that the higher ones are likely more accurate. In this note, we discuss what this might mean for spare capacity, demand and the pace at which the market might rebalance. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: The range of estimates for OPEC production has widened sharply since early 2023, and no ...