July 15, 2025 03:45 PM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe M Idea So Is the Oil Market Actually Tight? Or Not? After summer strength wanes, we expect the oil market to return to a sizeable surplus. However, the intermediate floor in oil prices is likely provided by storage economics, not yet by shale break-evens. This still likely drives Brent prices down, but probably not below $60/bbl. Charlotte Firkins Research Associate Charlotte.Firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3866 Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA Commoditi ...