Group 1: U.S. Military Operation and Oil Supply - The U.S. is reportedly receiving significant volumes of crude oil from Venezuela following a military operation that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, with claims of "50 million barrels" being taken in on a daily basis [1][2] - Trump stated that this operation would lead to lower oil prices and expressed intentions to strengthen Venezuela through collaboration [2] Group 2: Skepticism and Feasibility - Experts have raised doubts about the feasibility of Trump's claims, noting that Venezuela's peak oil output was only 3 million barrels per day, which has since declined to approximately 950,000 barrels per day [3] - Economist Paul Krugman criticized the notion of a war for oil, suggesting that current low oil prices and high production costs make Trump's plans unrealistic [4] - Exxon Mobil's CEO described Venezuela as "uninvestable," referencing past asset confiscations by the government [4] Group 3: Market Reaction - Shares of Exxon Mobil increased by 2.02% to close at $126.54, with a slight rise in after-hours trading, despite the company's poor momentum and growth rankings [5]

Economic Rationale - Economist Paul Krugman questions the economic rationale behind President Trump's actions in Venezuela, suggesting that the pursuit of oil wealth is based on "oil fantasies" rather than reality [1][2]. Oil Reserves and Production - Venezuela's claim of having the world's largest oil reserves increased from approximately 100 billion barrels to 300 billion barrels during Hugo Chávez's presidency, attributed to the government's reclassification of heavy oil rather than new discoveries [3]. - The country's oil output has not kept pace with its claimed reserves, indicating that these claims may be largely fictional [3]. Oil Pricing and Extraction Costs - Current crude oil prices are low compared to historical standards, with WTI February futures at $56.29 per barrel, influenced by U.S. fracking methods [4]. - U.S. fracking becomes profitable at around $62 per barrel, while Venezuelan oil in the Orinoco Belt requires breakeven prices exceeding $80, making the envisioned oil windfall unrealistic [4]. Shift in Government Messaging - There has been a notable shift in the government's messaging, moving from promoting "huge money-making opportunities" to potentially subsidizing oil companies at taxpayers' expense [5]. Venezuelan Oil Characteristics - Venezuelan oil, primarily found in the Orinoco Belt, is predominantly heavy crude, which is costly to extract and refine, leading to discounted sales [6]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs indicate that the global energy markets may experience a significant reset following the political upheaval in Latin America, potentially exerting downward pressure on commodity prices in the coming years [6]. Market Performance - The United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO), which tracks light, sweet crude oil prices, has seen a decline of 3.53% over the past week, with unfavorable momentum trends in the short, medium, and long terms [7].