(Bloomberg) — Oil rose as President Donald Trump intensified a blockade on Venezuela, with US forces boarding one tanker and pursuing another within weeks of first capturing a vessel. Brent (BZ=F) climbed to around $61 a barrel, after two weekly declines, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $57. The US Coast Guard boarded the Centuries tanker in the Caribbean on Saturday, which was laden with about 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. It’s also in pursuit of the Bella 1, which is en route to t ...

We're looking at the moves on oil right now. So, we're also seeing some new reports crossing the wire about the possibility of sanctions on Russian oil if Putin uh doesn't agree to Ukraine peace deal. It seems like oil prices moved maybe a half a percent, maybe even a full percent higher after that news broke.How much disruption are we seeing in the oil market this morning. Yesterday, we seem to be worried about uh over supply. This morning, how materially has this changed.I'd say look ultimately if you thi ...

Oil prices edged higher in early trading, though gains are capped by diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and concerns of an oversupplied market.Brent crude was up 0.1% to $61.19 a barrel, while WTI rose 0.2% to $57.33 a barrel, supported by growing tensions between Washington and Venezuela and positive data on oil demand and refinery activity in China.Despite the uptick, both benchmarks continued to hold near their lowest level since late October. ...

Group 1 - Oil prices have decreased, with US crude falling to its lowest level since May, settling below $58 a barrel, while Brent crude has also slumped to its weakest in about two months [1][3] - Diesel futures have contributed significantly to the decline, dropping approximately 1.4%, alongside a selloff in US equities which has added to bearish sentiment regarding oversupply [1][2] - A growing consensus indicates that crude supplies will exceed demand next year, pushing prices toward the lower end of the trading range established since mid-October, with bearish bets on Brent crude reaching a seven-week high [3] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency has reiterated its forecast for an unprecedented surplus in oil supply, with global inventories at a four-year high, although the surplus prediction is slightly below last month's forecast [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly new sanctions imposed by the US on Venezuelan oil assets, may provide some support to oil prices, as the US aims to cut off revenue streams for the Venezuelan government [4][5] - Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, are contributing to a psychological floor in crude prices, as Ukraine continues to target Russian oil assets despite peace negotiations [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced the largest two-day drop in a month due to ongoing concerns about global oversupply [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Brent crude traded around $62 per barrel after a 3% decline over the previous two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was above $58 [2] - Crude prices have been confined within a tight $4 range since the beginning of November, influenced by oversupply concerns and geopolitical risks related to Russian oil flows [5] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The US is projected to reach a record domestic crude production of 13.6 million barrels per day this year, contributing to the oversupply in the global market [2] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in US crude inventories by 4.8 million barrels last week, although there were significant increases in fuel stockpiles, including gasoline and distillates [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank expressed surprise at the lack of attempts to push Brent prices below $62, indicating a contrarian view amid negative news [3] - The upcoming reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC are anticipated to provide further insights into the market outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant drop, with traders awaiting upcoming reports to evaluate the oversupply situation in the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Brent crude is trading above $62 per barrel after a 2% decline on Monday [1] - The Energy Information Administration will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook, with additional reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expected later this week [1] - The IEA forecasts a record surplus of oil for the next year, indicating an increase in oil volumes being transported [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Prices for refined fuels have decreased recently, which has contributed to the softening of crude oil prices [1] - Despite the recent fluctuations, Brent crude has remained within a tight range of $4 per barrel since the beginning of November [1] Group 3: Expert Insights - Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, noted that the current surplus of oil at sea will eventually lead to increased onshore stocks, making the oversupply more apparent [2] - He also mentioned that US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have prevented Brent crude prices from declining more sharply [2]

Oil rose as a key pipeline linking Kazakh fields to Russia’s Black Sea coast halted loading after one of its three moorings was damaged amid Ukrainian attacks in the region over the weekend, while traders assessed potential US military operations in Venezuela alongside expectations for oversupply. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.3% to settle above $59 on Monday. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium carries most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, which have averaged 1.6 million barrels a day so far this year. The mo ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Oil Prices - Expectations of progress on Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have significantly influenced market sentiment, with White House signals suggesting optimism leading to a mid-week bounce in oil prices [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a peace deal could reduce crude oil prices by as much as $5 per barrel by lowering the geopolitical risk premium [3] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, create uncertainty around Russian oil availability, targeting approximately half of Russia's crude production and increasing export costs and risks [3] - Global oil supply expectations remain bearish, with the IEA projecting an increase of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and an additional 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while global inventories have reached their highest levels since July 2021 [5] Group 3: U.S. Crude Production and Stock Levels - U.S. commercial crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million, and gasoline inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels, indicating a rise in supply [6] - U.S. crude production continues to set records, with the EIA forecasting production levels of 13.6 million barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 [6]

Core Insights - U.S. oil production reached a record high in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), despite ongoing concerns about oversupply [1] Industry Summary - The increase in oil production indicates a robust output environment, which may influence market dynamics and pricing strategies [1] - The record production levels suggest that U.S. oil companies are effectively ramping up operations to meet demand, potentially impacting global oil supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks predict challenging years for the oil industry in 2026 and 2027 following a nearly 20% decline in oil prices in 2023 [1] Price Forecasts - JPMorgan's commodities team forecasts Brent crude oil to fall to $58 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading $4 below this level; prices are expected to decline by another $1 per barrel in 2027 [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent and WTI prices at $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for the next year, with expectations of recovery to $80 and $76 per barrel by 2028, assuming oversupply does not persist [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is characterized by oversupply, with global supply continuing to rise despite robust demand; this trend is expected to persist into the next year [5] - OPEC+ has increased output by more than 2 million barrels per day since April, while US shale production is projected to reach record highs in December [6] - Heavy stockpiling by China absorbed much of the excess supply in the first half of 2025, supporting prices [6] Market Conditions - Demand from the Middle East remains stable, and Indian refiners are increasing purchases of Urals crude from Russia; however, over 1 billion barrels are currently stored in tankers globally, marking the highest level since 2023 [7] - The International Energy Agency anticipates a supply glut in 2026, predicting an overhang of 4 million barrels per day [7]