Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran on January 9, 2026.Crude oil prices rose about 3% on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump canceled all meetings with Iranian officials and promised protesters that help is on the way. U.S. crude oil rose $1.96, or 3.29%, to $61.46 per barrel by 11:42 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent was up $1.99, or 3.12%, to $65.86 per barrel. The Islamic Republic's security forces have cracked down on large-scale demonstrations with hundreds of ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainty and the decline of Venezuelan oil exports may lead to a slight increase in oil and gasoline prices, although prices at the pump are expected to remain at their lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 1: Oil Price Projections - Andy Lipow projects that oil prices could rise by $3 per barrel, translating to less than 10 cents per gallon for gasoline, while current crude oil prices are significantly lower than a year ago [2] - As of the latest data, Brent crude is priced at $60.75 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $57.79 per barrel, compared to over $70 per barrel a year prior [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Market - Key factors affecting the oil market include potential supply disruptions from unrest in Iran and possible changes in OPEC+ policies regarding production cuts to meet budgetary needs [3] - The impact of Venezuelan oil output is diminishing, as it now accounts for less than 11% of the global oil supply, with OPEC+ increasing output and global refinery capacity [5] Group 3: Global Supply Concerns - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes, pose a significant threat to global oil prices, making the situation in Iran critical to monitor [6] - The U.S. now controls Venezuela's oil reserves, which are the largest in the world, raising concerns about the financial pressure on OPEC+ countries due to prolonged low oil prices [8] Group 4: Future Demand and Production - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil demand could continue to grow until 2050, but current oversupply due to restored production cuts in 2025 may lead to lower prices and revenues [10] - With record oil production levels in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana, OPEC+ may need to implement production cuts to stabilize prices [11]

Oil prices surged Wednesday, jumping off multi-year lows after President Donald Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade†of oil tankers into and out of Venezuela. ...

Ever since President Trump ordered the first strike on a boat offshore Venezuela, speculation about a direct intervention in the South American country with a view to regime change has been rife. Much of that has focused on oil, for obvious reasons. For those very same reasons, a U.S. regime change in Venezuela would have far-reaching implications. Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of crude oil in the world. Most of those reserves are heavy crude, for which U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are calibrate ...

Group 1 - Oil prices stabilized as investors balanced optimism from the upcoming U.S.-China leaders' meeting against anticipated production increases from OPEC+ [1][5] - Brent crude futures rose by 11 cents to $64.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 6 cents to $60.21 [1] - A decrease in U.S. crude and fuel inventories provided support for prices, with crude stocks falling by 4.02 million barrels for the week ending October 24 [3][4] Group 2 - Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.35 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 4.36 million barrels from the previous week [4] - The American Petroleum Institute's report indicated significant draws for crude and refined products, contributing to modest price support [4] - OPEC+ is considering a modest output increase in December, with discussions suggesting an additional 137,000 barrels per day [6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices remained stable due to optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade deal and renewed U.S. sanctions on Russia, despite concerns about weak oil demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Prices and Market Reactions - Brent crude futures increased by approximately 14 cents, or nearly 0.2%, reaching $66.08 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $61.74 [1]. - The market experienced a decline of around 1% in early trading before recovering slightly [1]. - The anticipation of a trade deal framework between the U.S. and China has positively influenced global stock markets, leading to a retreat in safe-haven assets like gold and bonds [2]. Group 2: Sanctions and Supply Dynamics - The U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies, which could negatively impact Russia's oil exports and potentially support crude prices [3]. - Traders are cautious about the actual impact of these sanctions on global oil supplies, despite the addition of trade with China and reduced crude exports from Russia [3]. - OPEC and its allies have reversed previous production cuts to regain market share, which has contributed to stabilizing oil prices [5]. Group 3: Demand Concerns - There are ongoing concerns regarding weak oil demand, with Brent crude falling to its lowest level since May earlier this month [3]. - The recovery of U.S. consumption is seen as crucial for price stability, with analysts suggesting that a lack of recovery could lead to further price declines [4]. - Iraq's oil production negotiations and the recent fire at the Zubair oilfield did not affect exports, indicating some stability in supply from the region [5].

Core Insights - Oil prices declined as traders expressed concerns over the U.S. economic outlook following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1][2] - The Fed's decision to lower rates is aimed at stimulating growth amid signs of a weakening job market [2] - U.S. crude oil stockpiles decreased significantly, while distillate stockpiles rose unexpectedly, raising demand concerns [3][4] Economic Indicators - Brent crude futures fell by 51 cents (0.8%) to $67.44, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by 48 cents (0.8%) to $63.57 [1] - The Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, indicating a trend of lower borrowing costs for the remainder of the year [2] - New applications for unemployment benefits decreased, but the overall labor market remains soft [2] Housing Market Impact - Single-family home building in the U.S. reached a near 2.5-year low in August due to an oversupply of unsold new houses, potentially hindering economic recovery [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell sharply, with net imports hitting a record low and exports rising to a near two-year high [3] - A rise in U.S. distillate stockpiles by 4 million barrels against expectations of a 1 million barrel increase raised demand concerns [4] - Kuwait's oil minister anticipates an increase in oil demand, particularly from Asian markets, following the U.S. interest rate cut [6] Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil facilities are part of efforts to disrupt Russia's oil sector, which could support higher prices if Russian oil is kept off the market [5] - Russia's Finance Ministry is implementing measures to protect its budget from oil price fluctuations and Western sanctions [4]