Oil rose in the morning Asian session as traders braced for U.S.-Iran talks. ...

Oil prices are currently on track for weekly gains of more than 5% amid the potential for the U.S. to attack Iran. Here's where they could go next. ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline of more than 1% at the opening on Monday due to easing concerns regarding a potential conflict in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran following the conclusion of a round of talks between the two nations on Friday [1] Group 1 - Oil prices dropped over 1% at Monday's open [1] - Concerns about a possible conflict in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran have eased [1] - The easing of tensions followed a round of talks that concluded on Friday [1]

Core Insights - The price of oil experienced an increase following indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [1] Group 1 - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical developments, specifically the indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures have increased sharply due to uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran talks, which may not occur as scheduled, leading to heightened expectations for U.S. action in the oil market [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Crude futures have rebounded from early sluggishness, with WTI rising by 3.4% to $65.35 per barrel and Brent increasing by 3.2% to $69.47 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Expert Commentary - Rebecca Babin from CIBC Private Wealth US noted that the failure to agree on the venue and agenda for the talks suggests that U.S. action is more likely if discussions do not take place, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline following positive signals from both Washington and Tehran regarding potential diplomatic engagements and negotiations [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The drop in oil prices indicates a market response to the improved diplomatic outlook, suggesting that investors are optimistic about a potential easing of tensions in the region [1] - The positive signals from Washington and Tehran may lead to increased stability in oil supply, which is reflected in the falling prices [1] Group 2: Implications for the Oil Industry - A decrease in oil prices could impact the revenue projections for oil companies, particularly those heavily reliant on higher price levels for profitability [1] - The potential for improved relations may also influence future production decisions and investment strategies within the oil sector [1]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced significant increases, with crude oil reaching a 4-month high and gasoline a 2-month high, driven by geopolitical tensions and inventory reports [2][3] Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed up by $0.82 (+1.31%) and March RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0215 (+1.14%) [1] Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's threats of military action against Iran unless a nuclear deal is negotiated have contributed to the rise in crude oil prices, as potential conflict could disrupt oil supplies from Iran [2][3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with no resolution in sight, is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, further supporting oil prices [4] Inventory Reports - The weekly EIA report indicated an unexpected decline in crude inventories, while gasoline supplies increased less than anticipated, providing additional support for crude prices [2] Production Estimates - The IEA revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.815 million bpd, indicating tighter future supply conditions [5] - The EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, while cutting the energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion BTU [5] OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ confirmed its decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026, following a previous announcement to raise production by 137,000 bpd in December 2025 [7] - OPEC's December crude production rose by 40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd, reflecting ongoing adjustments to manage supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. President Donald Trump's warning of a military buildup towards Iran has heightened concerns over potential military action in the Middle East, leading to an increase in oil prices due to fears of supply disruption [1][2]. Oil Market Impact - Oil prices have risen following Trump's comments, with Brent crude futures increasing by 1.1% to $64.77 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures up 1.2% to $60.06 [3]. Political Context - The backdrop of these developments includes significant unrest in Iran, with a reported death toll of at least 5,002 from government crackdowns on protests and nearly 27,000 arrests, indicating a severe domestic crisis [4]. - The protests, which began in late December, are driven by public dissatisfaction over economic conditions, particularly the government's management of currency devaluation and rising prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, production disruptions, and inventory changes, with recent developments in Kazakhstan, Iran, and Ukraine impacting supply dynamics. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Korolev oil fields are closed until next week due to power generator fires, affecting approximately 900,000 bpd of crude production [1] - Unrest in Iran, where security forces have killed thousands of protesters, poses a risk to the country's crude production of over 3 million bpd, especially if protests escalate and US military action occurs [2][3] - The US is deploying an aircraft strike force to the Middle East, indicating potential military action against Iran, which could further disrupt oil supplies [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Inventory Changes - Crude prices retreated following signals of progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which could lead to an end of sanctions on Russian crude and increase global oil supplies [4][5] - The EIA reported an unexpected rise in crude inventories by 3.6 million bbl, contrary to expectations of a draw, and gasoline supplies surged to a nearly 5-year high, indicating weakened demand [10] - US crude oil production decreased by 0.2% to 13.732 million bpd, slightly below the record high, while active US oil rigs increased by 1 to 410 rigs, remaining above a recent low [11][12] Group 3: OPEC+ and Global Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026, maintaining a cautious approach amid an emerging global oil surplus [8] - The IEA revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd, reflecting adjustments in production forecasts [6] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and new sanctions have limited Russia's crude oil export capabilities, further constraining global oil supplies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have decreased despite a weaker dollar and strong economic growth in China, with renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland being a focal point [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.7% to $63.52 per barrel [1] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.5% to $58.45 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.8% to 98.60, which typically supports oil and the broader commodities market [1] - Analysts noted that ICE Brent held up relatively well amid a broader risk-off sentiment in markets, settling 0.3% lower [2] - Continued firmness in ICE Brent timespreads indicates a tighter spot physical market, which may support prices [2]