16 December 2025 | 10:04PM EST Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Brent in the 50s as Stocks Land and Upside Risks to Long-Term Supply Rise 1 Year-end tax rules have likely been weighing on US oil stocks as well. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sa ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased on Friday due to heightened supply concerns stemming from the potential U.S. interception of more Venezuelan oil tankers, although they are still projected to decline for the week amid optimism regarding a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1] Group 1 - Oil prices rose on Friday as supply concerns intensified [1] - The increase in oil prices is linked to the U.S. potentially intercepting more Venezuelan oil tankers [1] - Despite the rise on Friday, oil prices are on track for a weekly decline [1] Group 2 - There is growing optimism about a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which is influencing market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight decline during Asian trading hours as investors closely monitored ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, in anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut this week [1] Group 1 - Oil prices fell slightly in Asian trade [1] - Investors are monitoring ongoing talks to end the Ukraine-Russia war [1] - A Federal Reserve rate cut is expected this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices stabilized after a 2% decline in the previous session, with market participants closely monitoring peace talks regarding Russia's war in Ukraine and an upcoming decision on U.S. interest rates [1] Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a 2% drop in the previous session before stabilizing [1] - Market participants are focused on the ongoing peace talks aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine [1] - A decision regarding U.S. interest rates is anticipated, influencing market sentiment [1]

Core Insights - Oil prices experienced a decline for the second consecutive day as investors are closely monitoring the potential impact of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine war on supply levels [1] - Concerns regarding a surplus in the oil market have been amplified by increasing inventories, which are influencing market sentiment [1] Industry Summary - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a significant factor affecting oil supply dynamics, with peace talks potentially leading to increased supply [1] - Rising inventories indicate a growing surplus in the oil market, which is contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in 2026 due to increasing supplies outpacing modest demand growth, while geopolitical risks may prevent more significant declines [1] Supply and Demand - Supply levels are projected to swell, leading to an oversupply situation in the oil market [1] - Demand growth is described as modest, indicating that it will not be sufficient to absorb the increased supply [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are highlighted as a potential factor that could limit the extent of price declines in the oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight increase in early Asian trading after a decline in the previous session [1] Group 1 - Oil prices edged higher in early Asian trade [1] - The increase followed a drop in prices overnight [1]

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Core Insights - Oil prices have experienced a modest decline, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 0.71% to $60.13 and Brent crude down 0.62% to $64.04 [1][2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The market is currently facing weak demand signals, particularly in Asia, where slower industrial activity and reduced energy consumption are impacting growth prospects [2] - A strong U.S. dollar is exerting additional pressure on oil prices, making dollar-priced crude less appealing to holders of other currencies [2] - OPEC+ is attempting to manage supply by pausing output hikes in early 2026, following a modest increase planned for December, but current price movements indicate that OPEC+ discipline may not provide significant near-term support if demand does not improve [3] Inventory and Market Sentiment - Recent data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed unexpected increases in U.S. crude stocks, contributing to bearish market sentiment [4] - Rising U.S. inventories often indicate weaker refiner demand or reduced flows into storage, which can negatively affect price momentum [4] - Global oil markets are showing signs of mild oversupply due to increasing non-OPEC production and reduced absorption of incremental barrels by Asian refiners [4] Market Outlook - The early Asian trading session reflects limited potential for price increases, with traders hesitant to raise prices without a strong demand catalyst or unexpected supply disruption [5] - Upcoming inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and new macroeconomic data from Asia will be closely monitored, as indications of demand deterioration could lead to further price declines [6]

Core Insights - Weak factory activity in China, a stronger U.S. dollar, and OPEC+'s potential production increase are driving oil prices lower, marking a trend towards a third consecutive monthly decline [1][2] - Current oil prices are Brent crude at $64.61 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $60.16 per barrel, down from over $67 and $62 respectively at the end of September [1] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for discussions on output policy, with potential for a 137,000-barrel per day production boost in December [2] Industry Analysis - U.S. crude output reached 13.6 million barrels per day as of the week ending October 24, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices alongside rising non-OPEC supply [3] - China's factory activity shrank more than expected in October, with a PMI reading of 49, indicating contraction, which has offset any bullish effects from potential U.S. energy purchases by China [4] - The market remains skeptical about significant losses in Russian oil supply due to U.S. sanctions, as recent discussions between U.S. and Chinese leaders did not address Russian oil flows [5]