Core Viewpoint - Sahara Group aims to produce 350,000 barrels of crude oil daily in Africa by 2030, focusing primarily on Nigeria for this growth [1][3]. Group 1: Production Plans - The production increase will be supported by a significant upgrade in exploration and production services, enhanced execution capacity, and the acquisition of seven new drilling rigs [2]. - Two of the seven rigs have already been deployed, one at a gas field and another at an oil field in West Africa [4]. Group 2: Market Context - The Nigerian government has set a target to increase crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day from a current rate of less than 2 million barrels daily [5]. - The removal of OPEC+ output cuts has alleviated some constraints on production growth, although challenges such as oil theft and pipeline vandalism persist in Nigeria's oil and gas industry [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other major companies, including Exxon, TotalEnergies, and Shell, are also planning to increase their production in Nigeria, indicating a competitive environment for oil production in the region [6].

Investment Plans - Petrobras has allocated $77 billion for investment in exploration and production operations from 2025 to 2029, with $47 billion (6%) specifically for pre-salt assets [1] - The company plans to drill 51 new offshore exploration and appraisal wells during this period and deploy 10 floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, seven of which will be for pre-salt oilfields [1] Production Growth - Brazil's crude oil output is projected to reach 5 million barrels per day by 2030, driven by Petrobras, which accounts for over 61% of the country's total hydrocarbon output [2] - By June 2025, Brazil's hydrocarbon output had increased by 60% compared to a decade earlier, reaching 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day [3] - Petrobras' production is expected to rise from 2.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 to 3.2 million barrels by 2029, with 81% of this output coming from pre-salt oilfields [5] Regional Developments - Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are identified as top non-OPEC oil producers driving global production growth, with significant oil booms occurring in these countries [4] - Argentina has emerged as South America's third-largest oil producer, with hydrocarbon output hitting record highs due to the Vaca Muerta shale formation [6][7] - Guyana's oil production is rapidly increasing, with output expected to reach 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, potentially making it South America's third-largest oil producer [12][13] Future Projections - Analysts forecast that Guyana could lift around 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent daily by the end of 2030, ranking it as the world's eleventh-largest hydrocarbon producer [13] - YPF in Argentina plans to invest $35.7 billion between 2025 and 2030, aiming to boost its net hydrocarbon production to one million barrels daily by 2030 [8][9][10]

Core Insights - ExxonMobil has successfully launched its fourth deepwater project, Yellowtail, which has a production capacity of 250,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), increasing the total Stabroek capacity to 900,000 bpd, surpassing previous expectations [3][4] - The Yellowtail project is a significant milestone for ExxonMobil and reflects the company's commitment to long-term growth in Guyana, with over 67% of the oil-and-gas workforce being Guyanese and more than 2,000 local businesses involved [4] - The Stabroek operations are on track to reach a production capacity of 1.7 million bpd by 2030, positioning Guyana among the top 15 oil-producing nations globally [4] Company Operations - ExxonMobil operates the Stabroek consortium with a 45% working interest, while CNOOC holds 25% and Chevron owns 30% following a successful arbitration case [6] - The Yellowtail operations utilize the ONE GUYANA floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, which has a storage capacity of 2 million barrels and an initial production capacity of 250,000 bpd [7] Economic Impact - Guyana has become the fastest-growing economy globally since 2020, with the government generating $6.2 billion in revenues by the end of 2024, and projections indicate revenues could reach $10 billion annually by 2030 [8][9] - Cumulative investments by the consortium partners in Guyana have reached $55 billion, with expectations for continued growth as the project expands [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Brazil's oil production, forecasting an average output of approximately 3.62 million barrels per day (Mbpd) for 2025, with potential for upside risks due to new pre-salt platforms ramping up [3][13][14]. Core Insights - Brazil's oil production has shown significant growth in 2025, with daily production data indicating an increase of 8.5% compared to December 2024 and a year-to-date rise of 5.7% over the same period last year [3][4][8]. - Key contributors to this production increase include the Búzios and Mero fields, with Búzios producing approximately 125,000 barrels per day (Kbpd) (up 22%) and Mero at around 112 Kbpd (up 26%) [4][8]. - The report anticipates continued production expansion, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% until 2030, potentially reaching around 4.7 Mbpd by the end of the decade [14]. Summary by Sections Production Overview - Brazil's oil production in the first two weeks of May averaged 3.49 Mbpd, reflecting a 5.7% increase from 3.30 Mbpd in the same period last year [8]. - The ramp-up of new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units, particularly FPSO Almirante Tamandaré and FPSO Marechal Duque de Caxias, is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [4][8]. Field Contributions - The Búzios field's production has been bolstered by the return of two FPSOs from maintenance, contributing an additional 120 Kbpd [8]. - Mero's production has also benefited from two FPSOs operating at peak capacity, with expectations for further output increases as new units come online [4][8]. Long-term Projections - The report projects that by 2030, pre-salt fields will account for nearly 90% of Brazil's total oil output, with growth forecasts based on the development of existing discoveries rather than exploratory drilling [14]. - The average production estimate for 2025 requires a modest increase to approximately 3.7 Mbpd by year-end, which aligns with observed production trends [13][14].