The cost of shipping oil is likely to remain high in the first half of 2026 as the global fleet ages and a rising number of vessels are hit with Western sanctions, shipping sources say, though rates c... ...

Core Insights - Charter rates for supertankers have reached a nearly three-year high due to increased crude movement from the Middle East and the U.S. to Asia [1][4] - OPEC+ is raising production, leading to a rise in shipments from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia reducing crude prices for Asia, further boosting exports [2] - The tanker fleet is divided between those complying with sanctions and those in the shadow fleet, impacting global crude transportation supply [3] Shipping Rates and Earnings - The spot rate for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) on the Middle East to China route has surged to at least $6.6 million, the highest since November 2022, with daily rates around $87,000 for transporting crude from Saudi Arabia to China [4] - Earnings for supertanker owners are at their highest since 2023, driven by increased oil supply from the Americas and strong demand for long-distance shipments [5] - Analysts expect supertanker spot rates to approach $100,000 per day, with sustained momentum anticipated through the end of the year due to rising Middle Eastern exports [7] Market Dynamics - The surge in September is attributed to open arbitrage for U.S. Gulf to East Asia flows and the tightness created by vessels committing to long-haul voyages [6]