Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry but indicates a revised near-term pecking order: gold > steel > cement > copper > aluminum > battery > thermal coal > lithium names [1]. Core Insights - The report tracks high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, noting that market expectations for a demand recovery remain cautious [1]. - Weekly data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a thermal coal output of 12,648kt for the week of May 1-7, 2025, which is an increase of 0.7% week-over-week (WoW) and 8.1% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines was 93.7%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW and a 7.1 ppt increase YoY [1]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines reached 3,495kt on May 7, 2025, marking a 1.2% increase WoW and a 14.8% increase YoY [2]. Production Summary - Thermal coal output from sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was reported as 2,989kt, 3,868kt, and 5,791kt respectively, with respective increases of 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.0% WoW, and 6.8%, 9.5%, and 7.9% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) thermal coal output from sample mines was 228 million tonnes (mnt), reflecting a 3.0% increase YoY [1]. Utilization Summary - The utilization ratios for sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were 86.8%, 98.7%, and 94.3% respectively, with increases of 0.4 ppt, 0.6 ppt, and 0.9 ppt WoW, and 5.6 ppt, 8.6 ppt, and 6.9 ppt YoY [1]. Inventory Summary - Coal inventory in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia stood at 926kt, 837kt, and 1,732kt respectively, with changes of -0.3%, +1.0%, and +2.1% WoW, and increases of 7.1%, 13.6%, and 20.0% YoY [2].