Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (August 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of August 21 to August 27, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 849,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production reached 354 kt, marking a 2% increase WoW, 3% YoY, and 4% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year was 29.4 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 11.9 mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 911 kt on August 28, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 13% decrease YoY [3] - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 753 kt (+5% WoW, -19% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 158 kt (-5% WoW, +36% YoY) [3] - Specific inventory levels: - Aluminum ingot inventory: 681 kt (+4% WoW, -21% YoY) - Aluminum billet inventory: 230 kt (+1% WoW, +25% YoY) [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 868 kt, down 5% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Aluminum ingot: 886 kt (-3% WoW, +3% YoY) - Aluminum billet: 336 kt (-4% WoW, +3% YoY) [4] - YTD apparent consumption for the calendar year was 30.3 mnt, reflecting a 5.0% increase YoY [4] Market Insights - The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusivity of various inventory types [5] - The total aluminum inventory increased WoW, but levels were lower compared to the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, while being higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption decreased WoW but was higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Observations - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with a pecking order of demand being aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the report on the aluminum industry in China for the specified week, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry but indicates a revised near-term pecking order: gold > steel > cement > copper > aluminum > battery > thermal coal > lithium names [1]. Core Insights - The report tracks high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, noting that market expectations for a demand recovery remain cautious [1]. - Weekly data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a thermal coal output of 12,648kt for the week of May 1-7, 2025, which is an increase of 0.7% week-over-week (WoW) and 8.1% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines was 93.7%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW and a 7.1 ppt increase YoY [1]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines reached 3,495kt on May 7, 2025, marking a 1.2% increase WoW and a 14.8% increase YoY [2]. Production Summary - Thermal coal output from sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was reported as 2,989kt, 3,868kt, and 5,791kt respectively, with respective increases of 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.0% WoW, and 6.8%, 9.5%, and 7.9% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) thermal coal output from sample mines was 228 million tonnes (mnt), reflecting a 3.0% increase YoY [1]. Utilization Summary - The utilization ratios for sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were 86.8%, 98.7%, and 94.3% respectively, with increases of 0.4 ppt, 0.6 ppt, and 0.9 ppt WoW, and 5.6 ppt, 8.6 ppt, and 6.9 ppt YoY [1]. Inventory Summary - Coal inventory in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia stood at 926kt, 837kt, and 1,732kt respectively, with changes of -0.3%, +1.0%, and +2.1% WoW, and increases of 7.1%, 13.6%, and 20.0% YoY [2].