Aluminum expert call key takeaways: update on ex-China expansion We hosted an expert call with Mr. Yang Liu from Aladdiny about the progresses on capacity expansion outside of China, with a focus on Indonesia. Power supply is a key constraint which is unlikely to ease before 2028, and the expert see tight market balance in 2026/27. More details below. Global expansion overview: tight balance in 2026-27. In 2019-2025, the majority of capacity growth came from China (4mtpa+ out of ~8mtpa globally), Russia con ...

Norsk Hydro Investor Day 2025 Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Norsk Hydro (OTCPK:NHYD.Y) - **Event**: Investor Day 2025 - **Date**: November 27, 2025 - **Location**: London Key Industry Insights - **Strategic Focus**: The theme for the day was "Strategic Discipline: Securing Long-Term Value Creation" with a focus on Hydro's strategic direction towards 2030 [2][3] - **Market Conditions**: The company is navigating unpredictable market conditions influenced by geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and trade tensions, particularly in the aluminum sector [6][7][8] Financial Performance - **Return on Capital**: Hydro expects to exceed its target for return on capital employed for the year [9] - **Cost Savings**: The strategic workforce reduction is projected to yield annual savings of approximately NOK 1 billion starting in 2026 [9] - **CapEx Adjustment**: CapEx guidance was adjusted down by NOK 1.5 billion due to a slower market [10] Strategic Developments - **Recycling Capacity**: Hydro has achieved an installed post-consumer scrap capacity of 860,000 tons, meeting the lower end of its 2030 target ahead of schedule [10] - **Decarbonization Efforts**: The company anticipates a 15% reduction in CO2 emissions for the year, surpassing its 10% target [12] - **Long-term Agreements**: Hydro entered a long-term offtake agreement with NKT for 274,000 tons of Hydro REDUXA through 2033 [12] Market Dynamics - **Alumina Demand**: Steady growth in alumina demand is expected, primarily driven by new capacity in Asia, particularly India and Indonesia [13] - **Bauxite Supply Risks**: There is a concentration risk in bauxite supply, with 95% of African bauxite coming from Guinea, which poses a geopolitical risk [14] - **Aluminum Demand Drivers**: The energy transition and increased defense spending are expected to drive aluminum demand significantly [17][18] Regulatory Environment - **CBAM Impact**: The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to increase European premiums by around 40%, which could benefit Hydro if implemented effectively [22][23] - **Supply Constraints**: Supply constraints outside Europe are becoming clearer, with China's capacity cap and potential smelter closures affecting material flows [22] Operational Challenges - **Market Volatility**: The extrusion market has faced significant downturns, with demand softer than expected, leading to necessary operational consolidations [35][60] - **Recycling Margins**: Recycling margins have been under pressure, particularly in Europe, while the U.S. market remains healthier due to lower scrap prices [36] Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: Hydro aims to capture market share in low-carbon aluminum solutions, with a focus on strategic partnerships and long-term commercial agreements [34][55] - **Investment in Technology**: Continued investments in sorting technology and recycling capabilities are expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [38] Conclusion - **Integrated Value Chain**: Hydro's integrated value chain from mining to recycling positions it favorably in a market increasingly focused on sustainability and low-carbon solutions [26][27] - **Commitment to Decarbonization**: The company remains committed to its decarbonization roadmap and aims to exceed its 2030 targets, reflecting a strong alignment with market demands for greener products [45][51]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum Group has initiated the first batch of electrolytic cells for its 1.4 million tons green low-carbon energy efficiency enhancement project, aiming to comply with national energy-saving and low-carbon policies [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves upgrading the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity using advanced energy-saving technology, which includes full graphitization cathode blocks and new energy-saving cathode structures [1]. - Upon completion, the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach the approved capacity of 1.4 million tons per year, with electricity consumption for aluminum liquid expected to achieve industry-leading levels [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - The project will rely on external green electricity as an energy source, which will increase the proportion of green electricity in the company's energy mix, thereby enhancing its competitive advantage in electricity costs and accelerating the green transformation of its electrolytic aluminum business [2]. Group 3: Bond Redemption and Share Pledge - The controlling shareholder, Jincheng Energy, has fully redeemed and delisted two series of exchangeable bonds, with the redemption prices being RMB 100.4808 and RMB 100.4466 per bond for the first and second series, respectively [4][5]. - Following the redemption, Jincheng Energy has also released part of its pledged shares, indicating a stable financial situation and no immediate risk of forced liquidation or transfer of control over the company [6].

Summary of the 2025 China Materials Tour: Meeting with SMM Aluminum Expert Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Key Expert**: Mr. Liu Xiaolei, Chief Aluminum Analyst at SMM Core Insights 1. **Aluminum Deficit Forecast**: China is expected to extend its aluminum deficit into 2026, with net imports estimated at approximately 2.5 million tons [1][2] 2. **Aluminum Average Selling Price (ASP)**: The average selling price of aluminum is projected to rise to Rmb 21,200 per ton in FY26, compared to Rmb 20,800 per ton in the current year [1][3] 3. **Supply Dynamics**: - Domestic aluminum capacity is anticipated to increase from 43.9 million tons in FY25 to between 44.5 and 44.6 million tons in FY26 - Overseas aluminum capacity is expected to rise by approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons in FY26, from 30.4 to 30.5 million tons in FY25 [2] - Global aluminum capacity is assumed to increase by 1 to 1.2 million tons in 2026 [2] 4. **Demand Growth**: Aluminum demand is estimated to grow by an additional 800,000 tons in 2026 [3] 5. **Cost Structure**: - The average cost of aluminum is around Rmb 16,000 per ton, with low-end and high-end aluminum costs at approximately Rmb 14,000 and Rmb 19,000 per ton, respectively [4] - The average cost is expected to remain on a downward trend, with limited downside potential of about Rmb 1,000 per ton [4] 6. **Alumina Market**: - Alumina is currently in a surplus situation, with a capacity of approximately 115 million tons per annum and a surplus level of about 4 to 5 million tons in 2025 [6] - Domestic alumina cost is around Rmb 2,778 per ton, while imported alumina from Indonesia is priced at approximately Rmb 2,800 per ton [8] 7. **Demand Substitution Risks**: There is a risk of demand substitution from steel and magnesium alloys due to high aluminum prices. A 10% increase in aluminum ASP could raise OEM costs by Rmb 200 to 400 per vehicle, which is considered manageable [5] Additional Important Points - The aluminum industry is currently experiencing attractive profit margins due to the supply-demand dynamics and cost structure [4] - The aluminum capacity cap of 45.5 million tons is not expected to be lifted in the next 2 to 3 years, indicating a continued tight supply environment [2]

Group 1: Commercial Metals Company (CMC) - Commercial Metals Company is a steel and metal products provider with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 12.5% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.35, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.00, and possesses a Value Score of A [1] Group 2: Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 5.8% over the last 60 days [2] - Alcoa has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.16, slightly below the industry average of 11.60, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 3: James River Group Holdings, Ltd. (JRVR) - James River Group Holdings is a specialty insurance company with a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 10.5% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.46, which is lower than the industry average of 8.30, and possesses a Value Score of B [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 Sichuan-Shanxi-Gansu-Chongqing (Guangyuan) Aluminum Industry Chain Collaborative Development Conference was held to promote cooperation and development in the aluminum industry, showcasing Guangyuan's commitment to becoming a hub for high-quality aluminum production [2][5][19] Group 1: Industry Development - The aluminum industry in Guangyuan has become the leading industry, with over 110 aluminum enterprises, including 60 above-scale enterprises and 10 national high-tech enterprises [7][8] - In 2022, the aluminum industry achieved an output value of 41.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 30% for three consecutive years, and is projected to surpass 50 billion yuan by 2025 [8] - Guangyuan has established itself as a national green demonstration park and has received multiple accolades for its environmental initiatives, including significant reductions in emissions compared to EU standards [8][10] Group 2: Supply Chain and Innovation - Guangyuan is enhancing its aluminum supply chain by integrating upstream raw material supply, midstream processing, and downstream applications, with a focus on creating a modern, efficient, and low-carbon supply system [10][11] - The city has initiated a pilot program for optimizing the inspection and supervision model for imported recycled aluminum, which is expected to improve customs efficiency by over 70% and reduce costs for enterprises [11] - Guangyuan has established a national aluminum magnesium electrolysis equipment industrialization experimental base and has formed partnerships with top research institutions to foster innovation in the aluminum sector [14] Group 3: Infrastructure and Policy Support - Guangyuan's strategic location at the intersection of major cities and its robust transportation network provide significant logistical advantages for the aluminum industry [15][17] - The local government has implemented various supportive policies, including financial incentives for equipment purchases and operational subsidies, to attract investment and enhance the business environment [18] - The establishment of an aluminum futures delivery warehouse and a series of investment funds aims to provide financial support and risk management tools for local aluminum enterprises [14][19]

A second fire broke out at a key aluminum supplier to Ford and other automakers https://t.co/HqsOOfhTJj ...

Core Viewpoint - The Novelis plant in New York is scheduled to resume production in December [1] Group 1 - The plant's production resumption is a significant development for the company [1]

China’s carbon prices surged after the government announced the implementation of a plan to include the steel, aluminum and cement sectors https://t.co/nB5XSd4Uc9 ...

Summary of Aluminum Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum outlook has improved significantly due to better-than-expected demand from Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and supply challenges related to power issues [1][2][3] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a material growth in demand, particularly from ESS and consumer electronics [2] Key Demand Insights - ESS consumption of aluminum has increased from 25% of total batteries in China in June to over 40% [2] - For 2025, it is estimated that approximately 960kt of aluminum (+71.4% YoY) will be consumed by ESS, with a further 1.44mt expected in 2026 [2][34] - Overall aluminum demand in China is projected to grow by more than 2% in 2026, despite a decline in demand from traditional sectors [35] Supply Challenges - Global aluminum production is expected to face challenges, with only about 1.4mnt of new supply anticipated in 2026 [3][31] - Indonesia is emerging as a key supplier, but power supply constraints are limiting production growth [11][19] - Current aluminum inventory in China is low at 600kt, which is below historical levels [4] Price and Stock Implications - The analysis indicates that Chalco's and Hongqiao's shares imply aluminum prices of Rmb16.7k/t and Rmb18.8k/t, respectively [5] - Price targets for Chalco, Hongqiao, and Shenhuo have been updated based on a more optimistic earnings outlook, with Hongqiao being the top pick due to better earnings delivery and higher dividend yield [5][44] Earnings Estimates - EPS estimates for Chalco have been raised by 8% for 2025, 38% for 2026, and 30% for 2027 due to higher margin contributions from aluminum smelting [36] - Hongqiao's EPS estimates have increased by 5% for 2025, 23% for 2026, and 29% for 2027 [44] - Shenhuo's EPS estimates have been raised by 4% for 2025, 20% for 2026, and 31% for 2027 [51] Regulatory Environment - China's government continues to enforce a cap on aluminum production capacity, which is unlikely to be lifted in the near term [21][24] - The government is promoting the development of a secondary aluminum industry to support carbon reduction goals [25] Conclusion - The aluminum industry is poised for growth driven by ESS demand, but faces significant supply constraints and regulatory challenges. The outlook for key players like Chalco, Hongqiao, and Shenhuo remains positive, supported by improved earnings estimates and favorable market conditions [1][5][36][44][51]