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Is Eli Lilly a Buy Before 2026?
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-16 16:30
Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's stock is positioned as a strong candidate for a diversified long-term investment portfolio, bolstered by promising results from the Triumph-4 clinical trial for its anti-obesity drug retatrutide [1] Clinical Trial Results - The Triumph-4 trial demonstrated that a 12 mg weekly injection of retatrutide resulted in an average body weight reduction of 28.7% over 68 weeks, alongside a decrease in knee arthritis pain [2] - Retatrutide, a "triple G" medication, outperformed the leading anti-obesity drug tirzepatide, which reported an average weight loss of approximately 20.9% in late-stage trials [4] Market Potential - The global weight-loss medication market is projected to reach $150 billion by 2035, with retatrutide expected to generate annual revenue of around $5 billion by 2030 [8] - Eli Lilly currently holds a 57.9% share of the U.S. market for incretin-mimicking drugs, with its products tirzepatide and Mounjaro demonstrating strong demand [9] Product Pipeline and Future Growth - Eli Lilly anticipates additional phase 3 trial results for retatrutide in obesity and type 2 diabetes by 2026, which could enhance its market segmentation strategy [6] - The company is also seeking FDA approval for orforglipron, a once-daily oral medication for obesity, with expected annual revenue of $8.3 billion by 2030 [10] - Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's medication Kisunla is projected to achieve nearly $5 billion in annual sales at peak, further diversifying its growth engines [11] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $63 billion to $63.5 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates adjusted to $21.80 to $22.50 [13] Valuation Considerations - The stock trades at nearly 32 times forward earnings, which may seem high, but is justified by the company's leadership in the obesity treatment market and its robust late-stage research pipeline [14]