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携程集团 - 2025 年第三季度业绩略超预期;海外交易额高增长
2025-11-18 09:41
Summary of Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$48.82 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: US$83.00, representing a 17% upside from the current price of US$70.89 as of November 17, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb18.2 billion, up 16% YoY, 1% above Morgan Stanley estimates [2][4] - **Segment Performance**: - **Hotel Revenue**: Up 18% YoY - **Flight Revenue**: Up 12% YoY - **International OTA GTV**: Up 60% YoY - **Outbound Volume**: Recovered to 140% of pre-COVID levels [2] - **Non-GAAP Operating Profit**: Rmb6.1 billion, up 12% YoY, 4% above estimates [3] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Rmb19.2 billion, up 221% YoY, primarily due to Rmb17 billion in other income from the sale of MMYT stake [3] Detailed Financial Metrics - **Operating Margin**: 33.4%, 1.2 percentage points above estimates [3] - **Net Revenue**: Rmb18.338 billion, up 16% YoY [4] - **Gross Profit**: Rmb14.979 billion, with a gross margin of 81.7% [4] - **Profit Before Tax**: Rmb23.098 billion, a 315% increase YoY [4] - **Net Income to Shareholders**: Rmb19.919 billion, up 165% YoY [4] Future Outlook - **EPS Estimates**: - FY 2025: Rmb26.62 - FY 2026: Rmb29.45 - FY 2027: Rmb33.50 [6] - **Revenue Projections**: - FY 2025: Rmb61.347 billion - FY 2026: Rmb68.881 billion - FY 2027: Rmb76.381 billion [6] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Rebound in macroeconomic growth and RMB - Recovery in outbound travel growth [10] - **Downside Risks**: - Rising competition from domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan - Pandemic uncertainties and macroeconomic slowdown affecting travel demand [10] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Method**: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) - **Key Assumptions**: - WACC of 10.5% - Terminal growth rate of 3% - FX rate of 7.15 [9] Conclusion Trip.com Group Ltd shows strong financial performance with significant growth in revenue and profit metrics, driven by recovery in travel demand. The company is well-positioned for future growth, although it faces competitive and macroeconomic risks. The stock is rated as Overweight with a favorable price target indicating potential upside.
Wedbush Upgrades Booking Holdings to Outperform, Sets $6,000 Price Target
Financial Modeling Prep· 2025-11-13 22:45
Core Viewpoint - Wedbush upgraded Booking Holdings Inc. from Neutral to Outperform with a price target of $6,000, highlighting the company's strong global presence, efficiency gains, and resilient travel demand [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Booking Holdings is expanding its share in alternative lodging while improving cost structures, which allows for reinvestment to fuel long-term growth targets [2]. - In the third quarter, Booking reported solid results across all major metrics, with robust travel demand noted in every major region, particularly in Asia and other international markets [3]. - The company's shares had fallen approximately 8% over the past three months and were trading near the lower end of their two-year valuation range at around 17.6 times its 2027 GAAP EPS estimate [3]. Group 2: Financial Health - Wedbush highlighted Booking's strong free cash flow conversion, liquidity position, and consistent execution across key strategic initiatives [2]. - The firm reaffirmed its view that Booking is the best-positioned global OTA due to its scale, diversification, and proven operational discipline [4].
KeyBanc Initiates Coverage on Booking Holdings with "Overweight" Rating
Financial Modeling Prep· 2025-10-23 01:04
Core Viewpoint - KeyBanc initiated coverage of Booking Holdings with an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1][5] Company Overview - Booking Holdings is a major player in the online travel agency sector, competing with companies like Expedia and Airbnb [1] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $169.52 billion, showcasing its significant size in the market [4][5] Market Position and Strategy - Booking Holdings is expanding its market share in the alternative accommodations segment, benefiting from Airbnb's exit from the Chinese market and ongoing regulatory challenges [2][5] - The company's extensive international operations provide a buffer against temporary restrictions on alternative accommodation rentals [4] Stock Performance - The stock price of BKNG is currently $5,230.59, showing a decrease of $55.41 or about -1.05% today [3] - Over the past year, BKNG has experienced a high of $5,839.41 and a low of $4,096.23 [3]